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Plamen Petkov
AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
OF THE INVESTMENT FUNCTION
FOR BULGARIA ALLOWING FOR THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS
Summary:
An investment function is a concept or strategy within economics that helps to identify the connection between shifts in the national income and the investment patterns that take place within that particular national economy. The present study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between investment and some of its key determinants – real gross domestic product, inflation, discount rate and the Composite Financial Development Index. The econometric analysis is based on annual data referring to the period from 1991 to 2011. Three investment functions are estimated – total investment, private investment and foreign direct investment, and each function is analyzed both by not taking and by taking into consideration the structural changes that occurred in the survey period
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Rumen Lazarov
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
AND THE ROLE
OF THE INSTITUTIONAL
FACTOR IN ITS ANALYSIS
Summary:
This article presents an attempt to clarify the understanding of the role played by institutions in relation to economic uncertainty. The aim is to critically analyze and compare the place which this economic phenomenon occupies in neoclassical and institutional analytical models.
The need for the introduction of the institutional factor in a highly formalized orthodox neoclassical analysis model is theoretically justified.
The conclusion is that, under this condition, economic analysis will be able to produce objective results on the basis of which precise conclusions and correct decisions will be made as regards economic policy
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Stefan Simeonov
A METHODOLOGY FOR TREND ANALYSIS OF STOCK EXCHANGE ACTIVITIES, BASED ON INDICATOR SIGNALS AND FREQUENCY VOLATILITY
Summary:
Different technical and statistical methods and indicators which are usually applied separately are used in market trend analysis. Some of the fundamental principles in technical analysis, as well as a great part of the quantitative indicators are not popular enough. There are unsettled issues regarding the change in the information indicators during the market trend and one can find unexploited potential in the analytical methods, which sets up a necessity for a more thorough and comprehensive study of the primary exchange indicators. Therefore, we propose a comprehensive methodology of market trend analysis, which integrates the signal functions of exchange indicators, statistical variation and frequency volatility by specifying their change throughout the market phases.
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Kamen Kamenov
THE SYSTEM
Summary:
This article reviews the philosophy of systems thinking and insightfulness as success factors. It also analyses and describes the characteristics of systems in which people are involved. Furthermore, it suggests ideas for establishing the relationship which binds systems thinking to systems analysis and insightfulness and results achieved in the course of time. The importance of co-active environment for achieving efficient end results is determined, the focus being on establishing corresponding projective behaviour. The advantages and disadvantages of ‘life’ within a system have been identified. Finally, the conclusion has been made that a system creates a sense of security and sets the pace of activities, which are a substantial advantage as opposed to the lack of clearly set obligations and mode of behaviour.
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Stefan Simeonov, Teodor Todorov
DESIGNING THE INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE SHARES TRADED ON THE BULGARIAN STOCK EXCHANGE IN THE PERIOD FROM AUGUST 2016 TO DECEMBER 2017
Summary:
The analysis of shares performance is normally focused on risk and yield, while the third investment parameter, market liquidity, is usually ignored. In contrast to the world’s biggest stock exchanges where market liquidity is taken for granted, it seems to be a major issue for developing capital markets, such as the stock exchanges in new Balkan economies. This research paper introduces and employs a model of complex market liquidity assessment of the traded companies. We employ the Frequency Analysis of Volatility to add to the research value of Risk analysis, the coherent alternatives of VaR and the investment profile of traded shares. Based on the complex set of methods employed in our research, we present comprehensive investment profiles of the companies with the highest and the lowest market capitalization which are constituents of the four Bulgarian Stock Exchange indices about the period from August 2016 to December 2017.
