"Scientific research" Almanac

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  APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS

  The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the ... The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account. The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series. The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.

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  RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES IN BULGARIA AND GREECE

  The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ... The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.

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  APPLICATION OF THE EUROPEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH THIRD COUNTRIES AND THEIR IMPORTANCE FOR THE POSITION OF CUSTOMS CONTROL IN BULGARIA

  Goods origin should be regarded as a complex economic category, which, from a customs perspective, predetermines the existence of specific control guidelines. The variety of free trade agreements between the EU and third countries introduces a number of requirements, the compliance of which must be verified by the customs authorities. This ... Goods origin should be regarded as a complex economic category, which, from a customs perspective, predetermines the existence of specific control guidelines. The variety of free trade agreements between the EU and third countries introduces a number of requirements, the compliance of which must be verified by the customs authorities. This necessitates the availability of clear technological provisions regarding the issue of proofs of origin by the Union and the verification of such proofs provided by beneficiary countries. The study aims to assess the feasibility of the free trade agreements between the EU and third countries in our country and thus define and justify the specific characteristics of the customs procedures with regard to the origin of imported goods. This aim has been achieved through: First. Assessment of the free trade agreements between the EU and third countries in terms of their importance; Second. Assessment of the relevance of the European free trade agreements for the Republic of Bulgaria; Third. Discussing the specific characteristics of the main customs procedures for control of the origin of the goods. The main research thesis is that the provisions of free trade agreements and the related origin of imported goods are the main subject of customs control and, as being such, they have a significant impact on the foreign trade relations of our country. As a result of the study, the importance of EU free trade agreements with third countries has been justified by the position of the customs control carried out in the Republic of Bulgaria. The foreign trade relations of our country have been analyzed and conclusions have been drawn as to the extent to which the Bulgarian business benefits from the possible customs preferences based on the origin of the goods.