"Scientific research" Almanac

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.

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  MONITORING AND ANALYSIS OF DEBT AND THE DEBT CRISIS (methodological aspects)

  The object of the current study is the public debt, and the subject – the tools for measurement (monitoring), evaluation and analysis of debt under the conditions of a growing global debt crisis. The analysis focuses on two working hypotheses: First. Determining the situation in the external sector of an economy is a function of the cumulative ... The object of the current study is the public debt, and the subject – the tools for measurement (monitoring), evaluation and analysis of debt under the conditions of a growing global debt crisis. The analysis focuses on two working hypotheses: First. Determining the situation in the external sector of an economy is a function of the cumulative expression of the individual analytical balances reported as foreign exchange balances, on the one hand, and the status and trends in its external debt. Second. The debt crisis in the 21st century from a phenomenon typical of developing countries is becoming a global problem, whose solution requires the application of a variety of measures and decisions of national and international nature. The aim of the study is to develop ideas for methodologically sound assessment on an international basis of the current state of public debts as a basis for conducting national and internationally agreed policies for its management.

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  THE PRACTICE OF MUNICIPALITIES IN DEVELOPING PLANNING DOCUMENTS FOR THE PROGRAMMING PERIOD 2014–2020

  The purpose of this study is to present the results of a survey conducted on the planning practices of municipalities in Bulgaria in the development of planning documents for the new programming period 2014-2020. The object of the study are the municipal development plans (MDPs) for 2014-2020 of all 264 municipalities within the country and the ... The purpose of this study is to present the results of a survey conducted on the planning practices of municipalities in Bulgaria in the development of planning documents for the new programming period 2014-2020. The object of the study are the municipal development plans (MDPs) for 2014-2020 of all 264 municipalities within the country and the subject is the quality of the MDPs and the implementation of the fundamental planning principles in the preparation of strategic documents for local and regional development. The study is based on a set of criteria developed by the team of authors, which provides an opportunity for objective assessment of the quality of the MDPs. The results obtained are a basis for presenting some best practices and making recommendations for future actions, aimed at improving the strategic planning process at municipal level, increasing both the coordination and cohesion between the planning documents of different hierarchical levels and establishing a national body with prerogatives in the field of strategic planning of the regional development. The main research thesis is that the municipal administrations in our country have a significant potential for improvement and standardization of their planning processes, which in the long term influences regional development and the opportunities for generating municipal competitive advantages.