"Scientific research" Almanac

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.

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  STUDY ON THE APPLICABILITY OF INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT MODELS IN EMERGING MARKETS

  The study aims to test the applicability of three basic investment and portfolio management models in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe – the EVA model, RI model and ETF α+ model. Our thesis statement is that the models established in developed economies are applicable to emerging markets but should be modelled according to the ... The study aims to test the applicability of three basic investment and portfolio management models in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe – the EVA model, RI model and ETF α+ model. Our thesis statement is that the models established in developed economies are applicable to emerging markets but should be modelled according to the specifics of these markets. Our task was to create modified models that are applicable in the East-European emerging markets. First we tested the economic value-added model (EVA), but we met a number of difficulties in applying it in Eastern Europe, mainly due to some differences in the accounting standards. Therefore, we developed the much simpler RI model, in which with only two modifications we were able to prove its applicability in our markets. Based on this result we then made key changes in the EVA model and as a result we found that both indicators – EVA and RI – can be used as criteria for implementing investment and portfolio management policies. In the final stage of the project we successfully tested the possibility of generating alpha returns in duplicating the WIG220 index, achieving a higher return than the market return.

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  ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION – BEFORE AND AFTER THE DEBT CRISIS

  The object of this study is the degree of economic development of EU countries, and its subject is the two major economic indicators selected for comparison – size and growth rate of GDP and the consolidated government debt to GDP ratio. The purpose of the study is to reveal the disparities in the development of the EU countries concerned in the ... The object of this study is the degree of economic development of EU countries, and its subject is the two major economic indicators selected for comparison – size and growth rate of GDP and the consolidated government debt to GDP ratio. The purpose of the study is to reveal the disparities in the development of the EU countries concerned in the period before and after the crisis. The Tasks set in examining the GDP aim to answer the following questions: ‘What is the size of the GDP expected to be in the current 2014?’, ‘Which of the European countries concerned will have the best performance, relative to GDP in terms of the global economic crisis?’ The main thesis is: Failure to comply with the Maastricht decisions that affect the value of the gov-ernment debt in the European countries concerned does not allow for making effective management decisions and this increases the disparities in their economic development. Main conclusions: Lowering the debt burden in developed countries, where the threshold values of debt and deficit are seriously exceeded, can be achieved by balancing the government budget, improving the methods for risk assessment, expanding the investor base, increasing the liquidity in the market for government obligations and achieving a sustainable GDP growth. Striving to comply with the Maastricht Treaty will help to reduce disparities in the economic development of the European Union countries after the debt crisis.