"Scientific research" Almanac

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  INNOVATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

  The sustainable development of the European agricultural sector aims to continuously improve the quality of life and well-being of the present and future generations. It is intended to establish a relationship between economic development, environmental protection and social justice. The purpose of this paper is to study innovation in the economy ... The sustainable development of the European agricultural sector aims to continuously improve the quality of life and well-being of the present and future generations. It is intended to establish a relationship between economic development, environmental protection and social justice. The purpose of this paper is to study innovation in the economy as a whole and particularly in the agricultural sector in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. It focuses on the following tasks: studying the theory and practice to clarify the specifics and concepts regarding innovation in the economy (including in the agricultural sector); identifying the factors necessitating the introduction of innovation (including in the agricultural sector); covering the European policy in the field of innovation (including in the agricultural sector); proposals and conclusions on the introduction of innovation in the agricultural sector for achieving smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The object of the study is innovation in the economy and in particular innovation in the agricultural sector (subject of study). The research thesis stems from the need to achieve smart, sustainable and inclusive growth by applying innovation in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy. This makes it necessary to stimulate the development of competitive and sustainable agriculture and forestry, which ‘achieves more with less’ in harmony with the environment.

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.

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  SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND THEIR POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY

  The reality in the European Union makes it necessary to consider various scenarios for the future development of the European integration. The inclusion of the Republic of Bulgaria in the single market makes our country a part of a much larger space, which directly affects the economic processes in the country. Therefore, we need to consider the ... The reality in the European Union makes it necessary to consider various scenarios for the future development of the European integration. The inclusion of the Republic of Bulgaria in the single market makes our country a part of a much larger space, which directly affects the economic processes in the country. Therefore, we need to consider the impact of the possible scenarios for the development of the EU and their effects on the development of the Bulgarian economy. The study aims to develop possible scenarios for the future development of the European integration. The formulated tasks are to analyse the geographical orientation of the EU’s foreign trade relations; to analyse the foreign direct investments in the Republic of Bulgaria and their implications for the economy of the country in the context of the European integration processes; to analyse the trends in the European integration processes and their impact on the Bulgarian economy. It supports the idea that the possible scenarios for the development of the European integration are to be reflected in the national integration policy. The study presents a positive, a realistic and a negative scenarios for the European integration and reflects their potential effects on the economy of the Republic of Bulgaria. The study employs graphical and tabular methods, ABC-analysis, SWOT-analysis.