"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE ACTIVITIES AND THE RESULTS OF THE APPLICATION OF BLENDED LEARNING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND NON-FOREIGN LANGUAGE SUBJECTS TAUGHT AT THE D. A. TSENOV ACADEMY OF ECONOMICS – SVISHTOV

  Blended learning is an innovative approach which combines face-to-face and electronic form of learning. For blended learning to be implemented, a virtual learning environment must be created. This environment enables students to perform various tasks and activities in order to improve the quality of their education and achieve higher results. One ... Blended learning is an innovative approach which combines face-to-face and electronic form of learning. For blended learning to be implemented, a virtual learning environment must be created. This environment enables students to perform various tasks and activities in order to improve the quality of their education and achieve higher results. One of the most widespread methods of implementing blended learning is the use of Moodle LMS (learning management system), which enables lecturers to create online content, develop courses, register users and manage the learning process. This form of learning has been successfully implemented over the last few years by lecturers at the Department of Foreign Languages at the D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in Svishtov both in language courses and in their work on a series of scientific and research projects. The results of all these activities so far have been positive. So far, however, at the D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics no comparison has been made between the activities and the results of implementing blended learning in foreign language and non-foreign language subjects. The aim of this research is to ascertain to what extent blended learning is efficient in foreign language teaching and in teaching economic subjects. In carrying out the activities, we created a learning environment and conducted a scientific experiment. The results of the research show that blended learning is applicable in both groups of subjects, which gives ground for working further and expanding the scope of its application at the D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, covering more subjects and more forms of education.

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  IMPROVING THE ‘PERLA’ RATING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE MONITORING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN BULGARIA

  The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an ... The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an independent and open rating system for assessing the banking sector helps to increase the discipline, competitiveness and stability of the banking sector. This study aims to assess the feasibility of the PERLA system for assessing the banking sector, developed in 2004 by a team at the department of Finance and Credit, and to find ways for improving it and enhancing the degree of its recognition. This is achieved through analyzing the theoretical foundations of the banking analysis and through building rating systems, and evaluation of its applicability under the Bulgarian conditions by improving the PERLA rating system. In the conclusion the author offers an advanced methodology for assessing the state of the Bulgarian banks (ALER(ts)).