"Scientific research" Almanac

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  BULGARIA`S FOREIGN TRADE IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

  This study has theoretical and practical character. Theoretical aspects include clarification of ideas and concepts of foreign trade as a factor for the development of national economy. It is performed analysis of information assurance of external trade surveys by focusing on principles, systems and accounting classifications. The applied aspect ... This study has theoretical and practical character. Theoretical aspects include clarification of ideas and concepts of foreign trade as a factor for the development of national economy. It is performed analysis of information assurance of external trade surveys by focusing on principles, systems and accounting classifications. The applied aspect of the study include improving the statistical methodology for the study of external trade, identifying the problems in studying its quantitative parameters and analysis of the structure, dynamics and interactions of Bulgarian external trade. For this purpose are approbated different statistical methods – analysis of time series, structural and regression analysis, as well different models to estimate the impact of external trade on some key macroeconomic indicators. In the course of the study are shown the main problems for external trade, international relations, balance of payments and more.

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  SPECULATIVE DECISIONS PRECISION ENHANCING TECHNIQUES ON THE EXCHANGE MARKET

  The realization of the instrumentation of technical analysis has been applied intensely in the field on the one hand and has suffered a relatively vague realization in Bulgarian academia on the other. This research paper focuses on the fundamental techniques of quantitative analysis that make possible the forecast of fluctuations in foreign ... The realization of the instrumentation of technical analysis has been applied intensely in the field on the one hand and has suffered a relatively vague realization in Bulgarian academia on the other. This research paper focuses on the fundamental techniques of quantitative analysis that make possible the forecast of fluctuations in foreign currencies quotations. The former relates to the main purpose of the current paper – to analyze the fluctuations in the market trend on the currency market and to reveal the potential of this specific approach to optimize the speculative decisions market players make. In order to achieve this purpose the following issues need to be resolved: systematization and characterization of the fundamental theoretical concepts on which contemporary analytical techniques are based; quantitative analysis of the market trend involving calculated indicators which include the basic price prerequisites.

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  OPTIMIZING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DIRECT MARKETING CAMPAIGNS USING DATA MINING

  In this article several data mining models, together with the conventional RFM model, are designed and applied for optimizing the effectiveness of direct marketing campaigns. Regardless of its popularity as a means for generating “optimal” target lists, RFM analysis is far from optimal solution. Applied on empirical data for one-year activities of ... In this article several data mining models, together with the conventional RFM model, are designed and applied for optimizing the effectiveness of direct marketing campaigns. Regardless of its popularity as a means for generating “optimal” target lists, RFM analysis is far from optimal solution. Applied on empirical data for one-year activities of an e-shop of electronic and home appliance technique, all data mining models surpass RFM model in predictive performance.