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BALANCE SHEET ITEMS OF THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK UNDER THE CONDITIONS
OF EU MEMBERSHIP
The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance ...
The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance sheet items, focusing on the currency risk of USD-denominated balance sheet positions and the correlation of these positions with the GDP of Bulgaria. A special focus is placed on currency risk in USD-denominated balance sheet items. The thesis tests the existence of a direct link between dynamics in the BNB balance sheet positions and the growth of GDP, taking into account force majeure factors. The paper has the following tasks: first, study the philosophy and the regulatory framework for the structure of the balance sheet items of the BNB; study trends and dynamics of the balance sheet positions of the BNB for the period 2006-2018; thirdly, the study of the currency risk system and its effect on the balance sheet positions of the BNB; the study of the correlation relations and the influence of the passives on the active positions in the balance sheet of the BNB. Analytical results confirm leadership "risk" status for the item "Cash and cash equivalents ..." (by 61.7% of the variation) in the asset and under "Liabilities to other depositors" the liability (61.7% variation). The final correlation analysis of the relationship between dynamics in capital and liabilities positions and their impact on asset positions places a leading role as a factor of position „Total Liabilities“. The impact of its dynamics is the strongest on „Investments in securities” with a positive correlation from +0.76 and determination coefficient equal to 57.9%.
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APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the ...
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account.
The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series.
The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.
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EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA AND GREECE)
The analysis of the real estate market has been directly related to the dynamic development of the overall price level in recent years. By focusing on the period 2008-2016, we draw attention to the influence of the two main factors - the accession of Bulgaria to the EU and the impact of the global financial crisis, which reflects most seriously on ...
The analysis of the real estate market has been directly related to the dynamic development of the overall price level in recent years. By focusing on the period 2008-2016, we draw attention to the influence of the two main factors - the accession of Bulgaria to the EU and the impact of the global financial crisis, which reflects most seriously on the sectors of construction, production and services. The focus of this paper is on the real estate market in Bulgaria in parallel with Greece, as a neighboring country that has suffered the harsh economic consequences of the crisis. The main research thesis on which the present study has been built is that the geopolitical and economic shocks on a global and national level are a key factor determining the potential of the real estate market. The main objective is to analyze the state of the real estate market in Bulgaria and Greece. The tasks assigned by the authors are:
- consideration of the main features of real estate markets in Bulgaria and Greece;
- outline the main trends of the real estate market in Bulgaria and other member states from Central and Eastern Europe;
- Investigating the potential for investment in real estate in the member states of the European Union by applying the method of Z. Helving;
- comparative analysis and assessment of the real estate market in Bulgaria and Greece and outlining the trends of its future development.
As a result of the survey a grouping of the European Union countries on indicators for the mortgage market, the real estate market and the economic potential of the countries was carried out. The peculiarities of investments in real estates in the member states of the European Union are distinguished, focusing on the Republic of Bulgaria and Greece and the main factors of the supply and demand for real estate.
