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RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT
AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY,
A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES
IN BULGARIA AND GREECE
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ...
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIRECT INVESTMENT
IN THE INFORMATION ECONOMY
As early as the second half of the twentieth century, it was already clear to all the scholars and researchers of the society and its inherent economy that the industrial economy was on the wane, and its place was gradually occupied by a new, post-industrial (information) economy.
The aim of the present paper is to highlight some aspects of the ...
As early as the second half of the twentieth century, it was already clear to all the scholars and researchers of the society and its inherent economy that the industrial economy was on the wane, and its place was gradually occupied by a new, post-industrial (information) economy.
The aim of the present paper is to highlight some aspects of the nature and characteristics of the information economy as à necessary intrinsic part of the information society and to identify the strategic and particular conditions for business investment in this new environment.
The problems to be solved in relation to the stated objective of the research are: to characterize the emerging information economy and its peculiarities; to outline the branch orientation of the foreign direct investments in the information economy; to highlight the motives that have the most significant impact on investment decisions in the post-industrial economy; to provide guidelines for adapting economic policy in line with the new realities.
The research thesis is that: the information economy changes the conditions for conducting business and also the behavior of enterprises, particularly transnational corporations, which necessitates the adaptation of the economic policy to the new realities.
The main results of the research can be summarized as follows: The theoretical foundations of the information society and economy have been clarified; The motives for direct foreign investment have been analyzed and the factors that are of major significance for FDI in the new conditions have been derived. On this basis, the relationship between the information economy and the opportunities for direct investment has been assessed; An analysis of FDI in the service sector has been made, with special attention paid to greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions; Recommendations have been made to the economic policy so that it can be adapted to the new business and economic environment.
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APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the ...
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account.
The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series.
The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.
