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APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the ...
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account.
The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series.
The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.
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DEVELOPMENT OF COMMERCIAL BANKS BRANCH NETWORK ‒ A CRITICAL EVALUATION
OF THEORY AND PRACTICE
This study focuses on commercial banking and the development of branch networks as an essential part of the banking system. At the centre of the analysis is the relationship between the expansion of the branch networks of commercial banks and the influence of the following four factors: the dynamics of the economic development cycle at global, ...
This study focuses on commercial banking and the development of branch networks as an essential part of the banking system. At the centre of the analysis is the relationship between the expansion of the branch networks of commercial banks and the influence of the following four factors: the dynamics of the economic development cycle at global, national and regional levels; the processes of consolidation in the banking system; the evolution of information technology and electronic banking and regulatory policy and restrictive measures including insolvency procedures that the central bank establishes in its supervisory capacity for the banking sector. The aim of this study is to offer a critical evaluation of the factors influencing the decision-making concerning the dynamics in the branch network of commercial banks, both at a sector level and in the context of the individual banks. The paper comprises four main parts: Firstly, a critical review of the regulatory system and contemporary scientific studies in the area of bank administration and branch network management, including the structure of decision-making factors in relation to expanding, maintaining or reducing the network of bank branches; Secondly, historical and empirical-applied analysis of the dynamics in the licensed banking institutions and their positioning on the competitive banking market in Bulgaria; and thirdly, analysis of the financial indicators for the banking system and the related trends in the development of the branch network of the commercial banks in Bulgaria and their staffing. As a result of the study, it has been confirmed by the empirical data for the Bulgarian banking market that after 1989 the dynamics in the branch network was originally due to the dynamics in the creation and merger of banking institutions. During the period of EU membership, this process has been based mainly on the key factors developed with the priority of the regional demand and supply of banking services. About the two leading banking institutions, in terms of bank staff numbers, number of branches and personnel per branch for the two leading Bulgarian banks, the analysis has shown the following results: 3049 people, employed in 173 branches with a 17.6 average number of employees per bank branch for Unicredit Bulbank (data relating central management as well) and respectively, in the system of DSK Bank - 4115 people with an
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RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT
AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY,
A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES
IN BULGARIA AND GREECE
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ...
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.
