-
RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT
AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY,
A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES
IN BULGARIA AND GREECE
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ...
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.
-
OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIRECT INVESTMENT
IN THE INFORMATION ECONOMY
As early as the second half of the twentieth century, it was already clear to all the scholars and researchers of the society and its inherent economy that the industrial economy was on the wane, and its place was gradually occupied by a new, post-industrial (information) economy.
The aim of the present paper is to highlight some aspects of the ...
As early as the second half of the twentieth century, it was already clear to all the scholars and researchers of the society and its inherent economy that the industrial economy was on the wane, and its place was gradually occupied by a new, post-industrial (information) economy.
The aim of the present paper is to highlight some aspects of the nature and characteristics of the information economy as à necessary intrinsic part of the information society and to identify the strategic and particular conditions for business investment in this new environment.
The problems to be solved in relation to the stated objective of the research are: to characterize the emerging information economy and its peculiarities; to outline the branch orientation of the foreign direct investments in the information economy; to highlight the motives that have the most significant impact on investment decisions in the post-industrial economy; to provide guidelines for adapting economic policy in line with the new realities.
The research thesis is that: the information economy changes the conditions for conducting business and also the behavior of enterprises, particularly transnational corporations, which necessitates the adaptation of the economic policy to the new realities.
The main results of the research can be summarized as follows: The theoretical foundations of the information society and economy have been clarified; The motives for direct foreign investment have been analyzed and the factors that are of major significance for FDI in the new conditions have been derived. On this basis, the relationship between the information economy and the opportunities for direct investment has been assessed; An analysis of FDI in the service sector has been made, with special attention paid to greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions; Recommendations have been made to the economic policy so that it can be adapted to the new business and economic environment.
-
BALANCE SHEET ITEMS OF THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK UNDER THE CONDITIONS
OF EU MEMBERSHIP
The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance ...
The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance sheet items, focusing on the currency risk of USD-denominated balance sheet positions and the correlation of these positions with the GDP of Bulgaria. A special focus is placed on currency risk in USD-denominated balance sheet items. The thesis tests the existence of a direct link between dynamics in the BNB balance sheet positions and the growth of GDP, taking into account force majeure factors. The paper has the following tasks: first, study the philosophy and the regulatory framework for the structure of the balance sheet items of the BNB; study trends and dynamics of the balance sheet positions of the BNB for the period 2006-2018; thirdly, the study of the currency risk system and its effect on the balance sheet positions of the BNB; the study of the correlation relations and the influence of the passives on the active positions in the balance sheet of the BNB. Analytical results confirm leadership "risk" status for the item "Cash and cash equivalents ..." (by 61.7% of the variation) in the asset and under "Liabilities to other depositors" the liability (61.7% variation). The final correlation analysis of the relationship between dynamics in capital and liabilities positions and their impact on asset positions places a leading role as a factor of position „Total Liabilities“. The impact of its dynamics is the strongest on „Investments in securities” with a positive correlation from +0.76 and determination coefficient equal to 57.9%.
