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APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the ...
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account.
The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series.
The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.
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RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT
AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY,
A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES
IN BULGARIA AND GREECE
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ...
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.
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EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA AND GREECE)
The analysis of the real estate market has been directly related to the dynamic development of the overall price level in recent years. By focusing on the period 2008-2016, we draw attention to the influence of the two main factors - the accession of Bulgaria to the EU and the impact of the global financial crisis, which reflects most seriously on ...
The analysis of the real estate market has been directly related to the dynamic development of the overall price level in recent years. By focusing on the period 2008-2016, we draw attention to the influence of the two main factors - the accession of Bulgaria to the EU and the impact of the global financial crisis, which reflects most seriously on the sectors of construction, production and services. The focus of this paper is on the real estate market in Bulgaria in parallel with Greece, as a neighboring country that has suffered the harsh economic consequences of the crisis. The main research thesis on which the present study has been built is that the geopolitical and economic shocks on a global and national level are a key factor determining the potential of the real estate market. The main objective is to analyze the state of the real estate market in Bulgaria and Greece. The tasks assigned by the authors are:
- consideration of the main features of real estate markets in Bulgaria and Greece;
- outline the main trends of the real estate market in Bulgaria and other member states from Central and Eastern Europe;
- Investigating the potential for investment in real estate in the member states of the European Union by applying the method of Z. Helving;
- comparative analysis and assessment of the real estate market in Bulgaria and Greece and outlining the trends of its future development.
As a result of the survey a grouping of the European Union countries on indicators for the mortgage market, the real estate market and the economic potential of the countries was carried out. The peculiarities of investments in real estates in the member states of the European Union are distinguished, focusing on the Republic of Bulgaria and Greece and the main factors of the supply and demand for real estate.
