"Scientific research" Almanac

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  APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS

  The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the ... The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account. The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series. The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.

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  RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES IN BULGARIA AND GREECE

  The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ... The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.

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  POSSIBILITIES FOR APPLICATION OF PENSION INSURANCE ORGANISATION OF TEACHERS IN BULGARIA

  An attempt has been made to justify the thesis that the organisational development and improvement of the applied differentiated approach has a significant capacity to turn the pension insurance into a socio-economic corrective of the market evaluation of teachers’ labour by providing pensions in the amount appropriate to the contribution and ... An attempt has been made to justify the thesis that the organisational development and improvement of the applied differentiated approach has a significant capacity to turn the pension insurance into a socio-economic corrective of the market evaluation of teachers’ labour by providing pensions in the amount appropriate to the contribution and significance of the teaching profession for the formation of human capital and socio-economic development and prosperity in Bulgarian society. The study of the opportunities for organisational development and improvement of the teachers’ public pension insurance is the main objective of the survey. The following specific tasks are set: study of principles and guidelines for differentiation of insurance activity; justification of the need for continuing development and improvement of the applied differentiated approach in the organisation of the pension insurance of teachers in Bulgaria; study of the specifics and evaluation of public pension insurance protection of teachers in Bulgaria; formulating proposals for development and improvement of public insurance of teachers in Bulgaria. The results of the survey show the need to develop and improve the pension insurance of teachers. Proposals to transform payments from the Teachers’ Pension Fund into a function of pension insurance contributions have been formulated. Organisational changes that bind the amount of pension for insured length of service and old age of teachers with their contribution to community development have been proposed.