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APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the ...
The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect).
The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account.
The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series.
The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.
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CURRENT PROBLEMS IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF ACCOUNTING IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
In the accounting legislation in the sphere of the public sector in our country conceptual amendments have been made, which has reflected on the overall organization of the accounting process in the budgetary organizations. However, these changes affect individual aspects of the budgetary organizations' accounting, which is why there is currently ...
In the accounting legislation in the sphere of the public sector in our country conceptual amendments have been made, which has reflected on the overall organization of the accounting process in the budgetary organizations. However, these changes affect individual aspects of the budgetary organizations' accounting, which is why there is currently no entirely new framework for accountability of public sector enterprises.
This in turn is a prerequisite for insufficient clarity and, in certain cases, a contradiction in the accounting of specific business operations and processes in the budgetary enterprises.
The main purpose of this study is to examine the organization of current and periodic accounting in public sector enterprises.
The fundamental research thesis that is being defended is that the improvements in the organization of the current and periodic accounting of the activities of the public sector enterprises are a prerequisite for a true and fair presentation of their financial situation.
Proof of the presented thesis requires the fulfillment of the stated tasks: to clarify the significance of the process of convergence of the national accounting rules in the public sector with the international accounting legislation; to outline the main theoretical, methodological and practical problems; to offer reasoned opportunities for improving the current and periodic accounting and reporting process in order to better reflect business operations in the public sector enterprises.
As a result of the survey, problems, referred by the authors as main problems, have been outlined in relation with the accounting in these enterprises, and argued opportunities for improvement related to the Chart of Accounts of the budgetary organizations and the presentation of the information in the financial statements have been presented.
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RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT
AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY,
A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES
IN BULGARIA AND GREECE
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ...
The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.
