"Scientific research" Almanac

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  APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS

  The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the ... The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account. The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series. The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.

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  RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, A PARALLEL ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES IN BULGARIA AND GREECE

  The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis ... The present study aims at a parallel analysis of investment, and in particular stock exchange activity and government debt, as well as finding a dependency between the dynamics of these processes and highlighting those stock indicators, for which the relationship with the debt dynamics is of greater significance. The study is based on the thesis of presence of a strong influence with inverse dependence of the debt burden on the investment activity. We also maintain the hypothesis that the sensitivity of capital markets to the dynamics of government debt is stronger than that of the real-sector investments, driven by the nature of indirect investments and the rapid transfer of capital through liquid stock markets. As a theoretical basis of the survey we have set up a systemic methodology for government debt management and highlighted dependencies on key macroeconomic factors. The methodology of the survey includes a selection of the main measures for the structure and burden of government debt and specific indicators, and indicators for analyzing the investment activity. In order to investigate the dependencies between the two processes, we apply specific comparisons between debt and investment indicators, as well as correlation analysis. We analyze in parallel the debt dynamics and the investment activity in the real sector and the stock exchanges in Bulgaria and Greece for the period 2007- 2017. The results show that the activity of both stock exchanges have had a pronounced negative trend since the beginning of the global recession, which has been going on for ten years now. We have established a strong reverse relationship between the Athens Stock Exchange activity indicators and the Greek debt in its structural components. As far as Bulgarian capital market is concerned, these dependencies are less expressed. We have found arguments for a critical negative impact of the debt burden on investment activity in the real sector, expressed by the correlation between debt dynamics and direct investments in the national economy and foreign direct investments. Our hypothesis for a stronger impact of the debt burden on stock exchange transactions than on real sector investments has been confirmed.

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  PAYMENTS FOR PROPHYLAXIS AND REHABILITATION AS A FORM OF RISK PREVENTION IN THE PUBLIC SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM OF BULGARIA

  An attempt has been made to substantiate the thesis that the organisational development and improvement of prophylaxis and rehabilitation payments have significant capacity to promote prevention and overcome the consequences of risk as a form of proactive approach to the public social security management. The study of the opportunities for ... An attempt has been made to substantiate the thesis that the organisational development and improvement of prophylaxis and rehabilitation payments have significant capacity to promote prevention and overcome the consequences of risk as a form of proactive approach to the public social security management. The study of the opportunities for organisational development and improvement of the payments for prophylaxis and rehabilitation is the main objective of the study. The following specific tasks are set: study of the principles and limitations of the prevention of risk in the social insurance activity; justification of the need for continuing integration and development of prophylaxis and rehabilitation as an element of the Bulgarian social security system; study of the specificity of morbidity and traumatism among insured persons; evaluation of payments for prophylaxis and rehabilitation and formulation of proposals for their organisational development and improvement. The results of the survey confirm the necessity to make payments with a preventive and long-term effect, testify to the achievement of good organisational level of prophylaxis and rehabilitation in the NSSI system and outline the opportunities for their development and improvement. Organisational changes with significant capacity for continued successful integration of prevention and overcoming the consequences of risk as a form of proactive approach to the public social security management in Bulgaria have been proposed.