"Scientific research" Almanac

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  INFLUENCE OF THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK IN DETERMINING THE REQUIRED AMOUNT OF TECHNICAL RESERVES FOR MOTOR THIRD PARTY LIABILITY INSURANCE

  The problems arising from the recent global financial and economic crisis have led to a rethinking of many texts both in local laws and at Community level. New rules and regulations have gradually been introduced concerning all economic agents operating within the European Union. The introduction of these regulations in the field of insurance is ... The problems arising from the recent global financial and economic crisis have led to a rethinking of many texts both in local laws and at Community level. New rules and regulations have gradually been introduced concerning all economic agents operating within the European Union. The introduction of these regulations in the field of insurance is associated with the adoption of Solvency II Directive. The implementation of the Directive in the Bulgarian legislation was realized with the adoption of a new Insurance Code, effective as of 1 January 2016 and Financial Supervision Commission’s Ordinance No 53 of 19 January 2017, which determines the order and method of allocation of technical reserves by the insurers working on the Bulgarian insurance market. The study assesses the impact of the regulatory framework on the technical reserves of insurance companies offering Motor Third Party Liability Insurance. It outlines the problems that insurers have to deal with and the effect that the methods, used for calculating the required amount of technical reserves, have on the insurance company’s balance sheet. The study has shown that there are differences in the methodologies described in the Solvency II Directive and Ordinance No 53 of Financial Supervision Commission. They concern the valuation of insurance companies’ assets and liabilities, the recognition of cash flows and the treatment of insurance income and expenses. Therefore, legislative changes are needed to synchronize the requirements of Bulgarian legislation with the European Directive Solvency II, with a view to optimizing the amount of technical reserves for Motor Third Party Liability Insurance.

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  BALANCE SHEET ITEMS OF THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF EU MEMBERSHIP

  The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance ... The research area of the survey is the balance sheet positions of the BNB, and the subject - the convergent aspects of the BNB balance sheet items for the period 01.2006 to 03.2018. The purpose of the survey is to identify the specifics, under the currency board conditions, as well as the dynamics, trend and risk parameters of the BNB balance sheet items, focusing on the currency risk of USD-denominated balance sheet positions and the correlation of these positions with the GDP of Bulgaria. A special focus is placed on currency risk in USD-denominated balance sheet items. The thesis tests the existence of a direct link between dynamics in the BNB balance sheet positions and the growth of GDP, taking into account force majeure factors. The paper has the following tasks: first, study the philosophy and the regulatory framework for the structure of the balance sheet items of the BNB; study trends and dynamics of the balance sheet positions of the BNB for the period 2006-2018; thirdly, the study of the currency risk system and its effect on the balance sheet positions of the BNB; the study of the correlation relations and the influence of the passives on the active positions in the balance sheet of the BNB. Analytical results confirm leadership "risk" status for the item "Cash and cash equivalents ..." (by 61.7% of the variation) in the asset and under "Liabilities to other depositors" the liability (61.7% variation). The final correlation analysis of the relationship between dynamics in capital and liabilities positions and their impact on asset positions places a leading role as a factor of position „Total Liabilities“. The impact of its dynamics is the strongest on „Investments in securities” with a positive correlation from +0.76 and determination coefficient equal to 57.9%.

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  APPLICABLE ASPECTS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONS

  The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the ... The paper is focused on the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of dynamic relationships. The relationships among the economic phenomena are realized not only in the distributions of the population, (static aspect) but also in the changes that have occurred into it with the time (dynamic aspect). The thesis supported by the authors is that statistical methods used for the analysis of dynamic relationships are both modern and powerful instruments for the researchers that allow to discover new characteristics of the interdependence among economic phenomenon but at the same time, their application is accompanied with many conditions that have to be known and taken into account. The goal of the paper is to systematize the statistical methods for analysis of relationships based on time series data, and to point out their abilities in the advancement and enhancement of the analysis of the economic phenomenon. In order to achieve this goal, we have solved the following tasks: a) to describe the cross-correlation analysis; b) to characterize the distributed lag models (aka transfer function models); c) to study the vector auto regression (VAR) models; d) to describe the cointegration as advanced statistical method for the analysis of non-stationary time series. The established results cover the advanced features of the dynamic relationship models: the interdependence between two (or more) time series; exploration of single relationships and distributed influence; the representation of multidimensional dynamic relationship; the survey of both long-term equilibrium relation and short-term interaction between the variables induced by the deviations from equilibrium state.