"Scientific research" Almanac

More titles

• 

  MODELING PROBABILISTIC CHOICES WHEN BUYING

  This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for ... This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for predictive analytics of demand. The aim of the study is to develop a transpar-ent and traceable analytical methodology for analyzing empirical data from stated preferences, providing opportunities for evaluating, analyzing and predicting consumer choice. To achieve this goal, a brief synopsis of the discrete choice theory was made, as well as a review of methods for evaluating and analyzing traditional econometric mod-els with discrete dependent variables. Particular attention is drawn to the problems in specifying adequate binary and multinomial regression models, which are the core of analytical tools, and whose evaluation and verification is feasible with the help of open source software. Systematizing achievements in the field, recommendations are given for using predictive models for solving marketing problems. Methods for predictive analytics of consumer choice are proposed, including output of aggregated forecast estimates, building of market simulators for predictive modeling of market share, as-sessment of willingness-to-pay and price elasticity at the level of product alternatives.

• 

  MODELS FOR BUILDING LOGISTICS CHAINS IN AGRIBUSINESS

  Characteristic of Bulgarian agriculture is the presence of many, mostly small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises, occupying an insignificant market share, which operate in the highly competitive market of agricultural products. This fragmentation challenges agricultural holdings to improve their competitiveness and imposes a realistic ... Characteristic of Bulgarian agriculture is the presence of many, mostly small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises, occupying an insignificant market share, which operate in the highly competitive market of agricultural products. This fragmentation challenges agricultural holdings to improve their competitiveness and imposes a realistic orientation towards market innovations, including the formation of logistics chains. Building and improving logistics models is essential for optimizing business processes and generating added value in the sector. In this regard, the main research goal is to construct logistics models applicable in agribusiness. The research defends the thesis that the construction of logistics chains is a market reaction of the business for effective utilization of available resources and generation of added value, contributing to cohesion among the regions in Bulgaria. The results of the study can be systematized in the following areas. First. Based on the surveyed 212 business organizations from different business sectors and 47 agricultural companies that support Internet platforms in carrying out their activities, the main problems facing the business have been outlined and good logistics practices have been identified. Second. Based on a benchmarking study, the strengths and key problems related to logistics in the analyzed organizations were identified. Third. Applicable in agribusiness models have been constructed for the leading sectors of logistics - Transport, Warehousing and Processing and Finishing, depending on the capacity of the organization.

• 

  FISCAL POSITION OF MUNICIPALITIES IN TERMS OF PUBLIC SECTOR DECENTRALIZATION - CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

  This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of ... This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of individual units of local government, and to test the impact of the proposed reform on the transfer of tax revenues on the fiscal position of municipalities in the context of ongoing processes of decentralization in the public sector. The author focuses on the thesis that the implementation of tax reform in the direction of transferring a certain part of the personal income tax to each local government unit will result in increasing its fiscal position, therefore, to increase opportunities a significant part of existing problems to be solved in a timely manner „on the spot“, until a higher degree of fiscal decentralization is achieved and its indicators are brought closer to the European average. As a result, specific correlations regarding the state of the budget indicators and financial independence for each of the 265 municipalities in Bulgaria have been identified and specific measures to achieve better results in the future are proposed. It is also analysed the effect of applying the hypothesis for transferring twenty per cent of the budget revenues from the personal income tax to the subsector „Local self-government“ and on that basis some recommendations have been suggested.