"Scientific research" Almanac

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  MODELING PROBABILISTIC CHOICES WHEN BUYING

  This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for ... This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for predictive analytics of demand. The aim of the study is to develop a transpar-ent and traceable analytical methodology for analyzing empirical data from stated preferences, providing opportunities for evaluating, analyzing and predicting consumer choice. To achieve this goal, a brief synopsis of the discrete choice theory was made, as well as a review of methods for evaluating and analyzing traditional econometric mod-els with discrete dependent variables. Particular attention is drawn to the problems in specifying adequate binary and multinomial regression models, which are the core of analytical tools, and whose evaluation and verification is feasible with the help of open source software. Systematizing achievements in the field, recommendations are given for using predictive models for solving marketing problems. Methods for predictive analytics of consumer choice are proposed, including output of aggregated forecast estimates, building of market simulators for predictive modeling of market share, as-sessment of willingness-to-pay and price elasticity at the level of product alternatives.

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  FISCAL POSITION OF MUNICIPALITIES IN TERMS OF PUBLIC SECTOR DECENTRALIZATION - CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

  This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of ... This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of individual units of local government, and to test the impact of the proposed reform on the transfer of tax revenues on the fiscal position of municipalities in the context of ongoing processes of decentralization in the public sector. The author focuses on the thesis that the implementation of tax reform in the direction of transferring a certain part of the personal income tax to each local government unit will result in increasing its fiscal position, therefore, to increase opportunities a significant part of existing problems to be solved in a timely manner „on the spot“, until a higher degree of fiscal decentralization is achieved and its indicators are brought closer to the European average. As a result, specific correlations regarding the state of the budget indicators and financial independence for each of the 265 municipalities in Bulgaria have been identified and specific measures to achieve better results in the future are proposed. It is also analysed the effect of applying the hypothesis for transferring twenty per cent of the budget revenues from the personal income tax to the subsector „Local self-government“ and on that basis some recommendations have been suggested.

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  RESEARCH OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING ON WINE PRODUCTION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS

  The present study is provoked by the idea of revealing the influence of the factors of both the internal environment of wine-producing enterprise and the factors of the external macro environment. The subject of study are the factors influencing the activity of wine producers located in the North Central, South Central and Southeast planning ... The present study is provoked by the idea of revealing the influence of the factors of both the internal environment of wine-producing enterprise and the factors of the external macro environment. The subject of study are the factors influencing the activity of wine producers located in the North Central, South Central and Southeast planning regions. The object of study are the economic entities on the market that produce and offer wine from the subsector “Wine Production” in three geographical regions of Bulgaria - North Central, South Central and Southeast. The aim of the research is, as a result of theoretical and practical research, to establish the influence of various factors, grouped in a certain way, on the development of wine production in the North Central, South Central and Southeast regions. The study attempted to combine the two approaches and as a result of the information, a cluster analysis was performed to classify enterprises on the basis of five selected objective indicators - net working capital, income / expense ratio, turnover ratio of non-current assets, turnover ratio, current assets and rate of return on sales revenue. As a result, a difference in geographical location was reported only for enterprises in the South-East region. The factor analysis was conducted on the basis of the subjective perceptions of the respondents about the economic condition of their enterprise and the factors belonging to the macro environment. As a result, recommendations are made for improving the business environment and the relationships among the individual contractors at the appropriate level - company, region, country.