"Scientific research" Almanac

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  AUTOMATIC ALGORITHMS FOR ARIMA MODEL IDENTIFICATION IN TIME SERIES FORECASTING: A LITERATURE REVIEW

  Forecasting plays a crucial role in effective planning and management within both the economic and public sectors, especially in a rapidly evolving environment. Despite its importance, producing accurate forecasts requires considerable expertise and is a labourintensive process prone to subjective errors, especially when processing large ... Forecasting plays a crucial role in effective planning and management within both the economic and public sectors, especially in a rapidly evolving environment. Despite its importance, producing accurate forecasts requires considerable expertise and is a labourintensive process prone to subjective errors, especially when processing large volumes of data. These challenges make the role of automation of forecasting processes increasingly necessary in modern practice. The objective of this study is to derive the advantages and shortcomings of various automatic algorithms for ARIMA model identification and to determine the extent to which these algorithms reduce subjectivism in the modelling process. The research includes three main tasks: (1) to justify the necessity of automation of the forecasting process and reveal the challenges to its implementation, as well as to trace its evolution; (2) to motivate the automation of ARIMA model identification on the basis of revealing their nature and the key stages in the modelling process; (3) to present and compare automatic approaches that solve ARIMA model identification challenges in order to further evaluate their effectiveness and applicability. The results of the study show that automated ARIMA algorithms provide high accuracy and reliability of forecasts, significantly reducing the time and resources required for the analysis. In addition, automation facilitates adaptation to changing data and conditions, which is key to making timely decisions in a dynamic environment. The findings of this study can assist organisations in selecting appropriate automated methods for time series forecasting.

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  THE IMPACT OF THE NEW CUSTOMS REFORM IN THE EU ON THE FUNCTIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CUSTOMS CONTROL

  The study examines the European Commission's initiative for a New European Customs Reform, which aims to simplify control processes and improve the security of international trade through digitalisation. The main objective is to examine the impact of the reform on the functional and methodological approaches to customs control and to motivate ... The study examines the European Commission's initiative for a New European Customs Reform, which aims to simplify control processes and improve the security of international trade through digitalisation. The main objective is to examine the impact of the reform on the functional and methodological approaches to customs control and to motivate proposals for its smooth implementation. To achieve this, a review of scientific literature and legal acts relevant to the reform and the digitalisation of customs processes was conducted; an analysis of changes in customs control approaches was carried out; the positive effects and potential problems of the digitalisation of customs control were identified; the main challenges and opportunities for participants in customs processes were outlined. The main thesis of the study is that the reform will change the approaches to customs control, which will increase its effectiveness, but will also require additional resources from all participants in customs processes. The analytical methods used have established significant dependencies between variables related to digitalisation and the effectiveness of customs processes. The study indicates that digitalisation will reduce factual controls and facilitate communication between customs authorities and businesses. The descriptive analysis shows that many respondents are positive about the digitalisation of customs procedures. However, there are challenges that need to be addressed to ensure the sustainability and credibility of the reform.

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  SAFETY AND SUSTAINABILITY OF EVENT TOURISM IN BULGARIA

  The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic analysis of sustainability measures and security and safety aspects related to the implementation of event tourism in Bulgaria as a tourist destination. This goal is achieved through several research tasks: a theoretical review of the existing contemporary literature in the field of the research ... The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic analysis of sustainability measures and security and safety aspects related to the implementation of event tourism in Bulgaria as a tourist destination. This goal is achieved through several research tasks: a theoretical review of the existing contemporary literature in the field of the research problem; the development of the structure and design of the study, along with the selection of appropriate methodology; the research and collection of data on the safety and sustainability of the destination, as well as information on the current state of event management issues; and the analysis of the results of the study, summaries and formulation of conclusions. The study is based on two levels of research. The first level concerns the security, safety and sustainability of the destination in which event tourism is implemented, and the subject of the second level is the organisation of events and the behaviour of consumers. This approach allows covering those aspects of the implementation of event tourism in which the connections with sustainability and security and safety have a certain significance. The object of the study is event tourism in destination Bulgaria, and its subject is the degree of safety and sustainability in organising and conducting. The theoretical foundation is built on scientific publications by established authors in reputable journals, with scientific review, as well as strategic and planning documents of leading world organisations directly involved in the researched issues. The methodology employs a mixedmethods approach, utilising both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The results of the study confirmed the thesis that the implementation of event tourism, in which a level of security and safety is ensured and is carried out in accordance with the principles of sustainability, is a consequence of ensuring these characteristics at the destination level, as well as at the event management level. It is established that sensitivity to security and safety is stronger than reactions to the dimensions of sustainability.