"Scientific research" Almanac

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  FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTIVE AND CAUSAL MODELING OF MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION IN A DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT

  In the increasingly complex ecosystem of digital marketing, determining the incremental contribution of different marketing channels to consumer conversion remains a fundamentally unresolved challenge. The subject of this study is the process of multi-touch attribution in a digital environment, and its object is the predictive and causal approach ... In the increasingly complex ecosystem of digital marketing, determining the incremental contribution of different marketing channels to consumer conversion remains a fundamentally unresolved challenge. The subject of this study is the process of multi-touch attribution in a digital environment, and its object is the predictive and causal approach to assessing the contribution of channels. The main goal is to develop a comprehensive framework for multi-touch attribution that integrates probabilistic modeling (Markov chains), machine learning (XGBoost), and causal methods (Shapley values, counterfactual analysis) to provide a more accurate and interpretable assessment of channel influence. As part of the study, a hybrid model system was built and tested on real user journey data, and its effectiveness was compared to that of traditional heuristic models. The results show significant differences from heuristic approaches and highlight the superior predictive accuracy of machine learning-based methods (overall accuracy = 0.984; AUC = 0.846), while the application of explainable AI techniques increases the transparency of attribution. Theoretically, the study combines causal models, reinforcement learning, and interpretability in attribution modeling, linking econometric theory with data analysis, and in management terms, it offers a reproducible framework for resource optimization and data-driven decision-making.

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  INTEGRATED REPORTING AS AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT: LESSONS FROM BULGARIAN PRACTICE (2020–2025)

  The study aims to assess the maturity of integrated reporting in Bulgarian enterprises during the period 2020–2025 and to examine the extent to which it functions as an infrastructure for sustainable corporate management. The main research tasks include: formulating a conceptual framework of integrated thinking, the six capitals and double ... The study aims to assess the maturity of integrated reporting in Bulgarian enterprises during the period 2020–2025 and to examine the extent to which it functions as an infrastructure for sustainable corporate management. The main research tasks include: formulating a conceptual framework of integrated thinking, the six capitals and double materiality; outlining the regulatory environment (CSRD, ESRS) and the role of external assurance; developing and applying a Maturity Index for Integrated Reporting (IRMI); implementing it on a representative sample of Bulgarian companies; and analysing sectoral differences, limitations and emerging trends. The thesis of the study is that integrated reporting in Bulgaria is gradually transforming from a tool for regulatory compliance into a key management system that integrates data, processes and strategic decision-making, supports access to capital, and enhances corporate sustainability. The results demonstrate significant progress among large enterprises in industry, energy and telecommunications, while the pharmaceutical sector and SMEs remain at an early stage. IRMI reveals high maturity levels in reporting format and climate-related indicators, but low maturity regarding Scope 3, social topics, stakeholder engagement and the integration of ESG information into management and investment processes. Based on these findings, the study proposes an analytical framework for the staged development of integrated reporting – from diagnosis and materiality assessment to digital structuring of data, strategic integration and the provision of external assurance.

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  THE PROTEIN TRANSITION IN BULGARIA: CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS AND EMPIRICAL DIMENSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS

  Thå study examines the transformation of food systems in the context of sustainability, with a specific focus on the protein transition as a key mechanism linking the environmental, economic, and social dimensions of sustainable diets. Its main objective is to analyse the conceptual and empirical aspects of the protein transition in Bulgaria and ... Thå study examines the transformation of food systems in the context of sustainability, with a specific focus on the protein transition as a key mechanism linking the environmental, economic, and social dimensions of sustainable diets. Its main objective is to analyse the conceptual and empirical aspects of the protein transition in Bulgaria and to assess the extent to which the country aligns with the European Union’s sustainable food policies. To achieve this objective, the study sets out to outline the theoretical frameworks of sustainable diets and the protein transition, to analyse the role of meat within sustainable food systems, to compare the dynamics and structure of protein supply in Bulgaria with average EU levels, and to identify the factors that hinder the acceleration of the protein transition in the national context. The authors support the thesis that Bulgaria’s progress in the protein transition remains limited and incomplete, due to persistent structural differences in the protein balance and a combination of socio-cultural and economic factors that impede convergence with mainstream European models of sustainable dietary practices. The theoretical section presents the systemic framework of sustainable food systems, while the empirical analysis draws on FAOSTAT data for the period 1961–2023, comparing protein availability in Bulgaria and the EU. The results indicate that Bulgaria is in an early stage of the protein transition, characterised by lower overall protein availability and a persistent imbalance between animal and plant protein sources. The study concludes that effective progress towards sustainability requires context-sensitive policies that combine awareness campaigns, improved accessibility of plant-based products, and the integration of sustainability principles into local food culture.