"Scientific research" Almanac

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  RESEARCH ON THE CAPACITY OF DISTRICT ADMINISTRATIONS IN BULGARIA

  The purpose of this study is to present the results of a research conducted on the administrative capacity of district administrations in Bulgaria. The object of the study is the internal organizational functioning of district administrations in terms of the concept of continuously improving the work processes and increasing the administrative ... The purpose of this study is to present the results of a research conducted on the administrative capacity of district administrations in Bulgaria. The object of the study is the internal organizational functioning of district administrations in terms of the concept of continuously improving the work processes and increasing the administrative capacity. The study is based on an objective methodology developed by the team of authors, which includes a multicriterial system for administrative capacity assessment. The results obtained are a basis for presenting some best practices and making recommendations for future activities aimed at setting standards for quality and efficiency of the processes in these territorial structures. The main research thesis is that Bulgarian public sector has a significant potential for improvement and standardization of its internal organizational processes, which in the long term affects not only the quality of the public services provided, but also the district development.

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  ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION – BEFORE AND AFTER THE DEBT CRISIS

  The object of this study is the degree of economic development of EU countries, and its subject is the two major economic indicators selected for comparison – size and growth rate of GDP and the consolidated government debt to GDP ratio. The purpose of the study is to reveal the disparities in the development of the EU countries concerned in the ... The object of this study is the degree of economic development of EU countries, and its subject is the two major economic indicators selected for comparison – size and growth rate of GDP and the consolidated government debt to GDP ratio. The purpose of the study is to reveal the disparities in the development of the EU countries concerned in the period before and after the crisis. The Tasks set in examining the GDP aim to answer the following questions: ‘What is the size of the GDP expected to be in the current 2014?’, ‘Which of the European countries concerned will have the best performance, relative to GDP in terms of the global economic crisis?’ The main thesis is: Failure to comply with the Maastricht decisions that affect the value of the gov-ernment debt in the European countries concerned does not allow for making effective management decisions and this increases the disparities in their economic development. Main conclusions: Lowering the debt burden in developed countries, where the threshold values of debt and deficit are seriously exceeded, can be achieved by balancing the government budget, improving the methods for risk assessment, expanding the investor base, increasing the liquidity in the market for government obligations and achieving a sustainable GDP growth. Striving to comply with the Maastricht Treaty will help to reduce disparities in the economic development of the European Union countries after the debt crisis.

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.