"Scientific research" Almanac

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.

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  STUDY ON THE APPLICABILITY OF INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT MODELS IN EMERGING MARKETS

  The study aims to test the applicability of three basic investment and portfolio management models in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe – the EVA model, RI model and ETF α+ model. Our thesis statement is that the models established in developed economies are applicable to emerging markets but should be modelled according to the ... The study aims to test the applicability of three basic investment and portfolio management models in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe – the EVA model, RI model and ETF α+ model. Our thesis statement is that the models established in developed economies are applicable to emerging markets but should be modelled according to the specifics of these markets. Our task was to create modified models that are applicable in the East-European emerging markets. First we tested the economic value-added model (EVA), but we met a number of difficulties in applying it in Eastern Europe, mainly due to some differences in the accounting standards. Therefore, we developed the much simpler RI model, in which with only two modifications we were able to prove its applicability in our markets. Based on this result we then made key changes in the EVA model and as a result we found that both indicators – EVA and RI – can be used as criteria for implementing investment and portfolio management policies. In the final stage of the project we successfully tested the possibility of generating alpha returns in duplicating the WIG220 index, achieving a higher return than the market return.

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  INNOVATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

  The sustainable development of the European agricultural sector aims to continuously improve the quality of life and well-being of the present and future generations. It is intended to establish a relationship between economic development, environmental protection and social justice. The purpose of this paper is to study innovation in the economy ... The sustainable development of the European agricultural sector aims to continuously improve the quality of life and well-being of the present and future generations. It is intended to establish a relationship between economic development, environmental protection and social justice. The purpose of this paper is to study innovation in the economy as a whole and particularly in the agricultural sector in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. It focuses on the following tasks: studying the theory and practice to clarify the specifics and concepts regarding innovation in the economy (including in the agricultural sector); identifying the factors necessitating the introduction of innovation (including in the agricultural sector); covering the European policy in the field of innovation (including in the agricultural sector); proposals and conclusions on the introduction of innovation in the agricultural sector for achieving smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The object of the study is innovation in the economy and in particular innovation in the agricultural sector (subject of study). The research thesis stems from the need to achieve smart, sustainable and inclusive growth by applying innovation in the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy. This makes it necessary to stimulate the development of competitive and sustainable agriculture and forestry, which ‘achieves more with less’ in harmony with the environment.