"Scientific research" Almanac

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  ASSESSING MARKETING EFFECTIVENESS – PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

  The issues related to marketing effectiveness and linking marketing to a firm’s financial results have been very popular in the economic literature in the past two decades. In this study we try to systemize the accumulated knowledge in this area. We define some methodological problems concerning marketing effectiveness assessment. Based on the ... The issues related to marketing effectiveness and linking marketing to a firm’s financial results have been very popular in the economic literature in the past two decades. In this study we try to systemize the accumulated knowledge in this area. We define some methodological problems concerning marketing effectiveness assessment. Based on the data accumulated we define the category of marketing effectiveness and outline its manifestations. We argue that marketing effectiveness assessment has to be done in different ways according to the assessment object – a separate marketing campaign or a marketing activity as a whole. We propose to use ‘Return on Marketing Investments’ (MROI) for assessing a single marketing campaign, and the change in the marketing assets – for assessing the marketing effectiveness as a whole (marketing strategy). General models for the two types of assessment are proposed.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  INFORMATION SECURITY IN BULGARIAN E-COMMERCE SYSTEMS

  The provision of information security is one of the greatest challenges that modern information and communication technologies face. To solve the problems in this area it is necessary to perform a complete and profound analysis of all real and potential threats and, on this basis, to choose and develop a complete solution. The object of study are ... The provision of information security is one of the greatest challenges that modern information and communication technologies face. To solve the problems in this area it is necessary to perform a complete and profound analysis of all real and potential threats and, on this basis, to choose and develop a complete solution. The object of study are the e-commerce systems in the Bulgarian business organizations and the subject of study are the policies, strategies, approaches, methods, techniques and technologies to achieve a high level of security of these systems. The main goal of this study is to prove the thesis statement that effective protection in e-commerce is multi-layered and the new technologies, policies and procedures, laws and industry standards have to be taken into account. The tasks to achieve the goal include: presenting the results of a survey of the current state of e-commerce systems security in the Bulgarian business organizations; defining the problems of information security in e-commerce systems; and presenting a strategy and technology to counter these threats.