"Scientific research" Almanac

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  THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATION OF GREEN JOBS IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR IN BULGARIA

  The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and ... The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and concepts for the development of a green economy and green jobs in the EU and U.S.; to define the term „green jobs”; to examine the prerequisites and barriers to green job creation in Bulgaria, and to study the potential for creation of green jobs in the private and public sectors. The main thesis in the study is that the concept of green economy is applicable in the private and public sectors in Bulgaria. Its implementation will catalyze the process of increasing the competitiveness of the areas that generate green jobs, reduce inter-regional disparities and accelerate the integration of the Bulgarian economy in the European structures. The study emphasizes the main results, namely: the best practices for implementation of green initiatives for sustainable local development and creation of green jobs are outlined, an attempt to quantify the attitudes about the creation of green jobs in the public and private sectors in Bulgaria is made, recommendations for improving the network interaction of stakeholders in the green economy issues are formulated.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  IMPROVING THE ‘PERLA’ RATING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE MONITORING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN BULGARIA

  The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an ... The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an independent and open rating system for assessing the banking sector helps to increase the discipline, competitiveness and stability of the banking sector. This study aims to assess the feasibility of the PERLA system for assessing the banking sector, developed in 2004 by a team at the department of Finance and Credit, and to find ways for improving it and enhancing the degree of its recognition. This is achieved through analyzing the theoretical foundations of the banking analysis and through building rating systems, and evaluation of its applicability under the Bulgarian conditions by improving the PERLA rating system. In the conclusion the author offers an advanced methodology for assessing the state of the Bulgarian banks (ALER(ts)).