"Scientific research" Almanac

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  MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS AND ITS RISK ASPECTS

  The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial ... The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial business organizations; to systematize and analyze empirical data on its risk aspects and propose specific countermeasures. The thesis statement is that early identification and diagnosis of the risks of the market behaviour of the economic entities in industry, and the development of a policy for combating and limiting the negative consequences of their manifestation, are essential for achieving the company goals. As a result, the following were studied: the behaviour that the industrial business organizations demonstrate in the market, and the risks that accompany this type of company activities. Based on data from the empirical study it was found out that business organizations as a whole manage to demonstrate relatively adequate market behaviour. However, the adverse indications of the market environment and the many firm-wide difficulties raise a number of risks. In this context, ideas and recommendations are formulated for better (early) identification and diagnosis of the risks studied and for limiting and reducing the adverse effects of their occurrence.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE AGRIBUSINESS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BULGARIA

  The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing ... The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing sustainable business in the rural regions of Bulgaria. Three sub goals further expand the main objective of the study, namely: to analyze the problems of sustainable use of natural resources; to outline the main trends in the preservation of the environment and biodiversity; and to specify the models and forms of sustainable business development in the country. The specific tasks that the study completes are related to revealing the economic and social advantages of sustainable development, identifying the problems of sustainable use of natural resources in Bulgaria and coordinating the mutual efforts of business agents in the rural regions for achieving sustainable development. The results of the research are as follows: outlining approaches to sustainable use of natural resources within their capacity as a prerequisite of any long-term development by coordinating the political, economic and social systems; suggesting models for sustainable resource use on the basis of organic farming; highlighting the advantages of sustainable agriculture as an opportunity for reducing unemployment, migration processes and local economy development in the endangered regions of Bulgaria.