"Scientific research" Almanac

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  INFORMATION SECURITY IN BULGARIAN E-COMMERCE SYSTEMS

  The provision of information security is one of the greatest challenges that modern information and communication technologies face. To solve the problems in this area it is necessary to perform a complete and profound analysis of all real and potential threats and, on this basis, to choose and develop a complete solution. The object of study are ... The provision of information security is one of the greatest challenges that modern information and communication technologies face. To solve the problems in this area it is necessary to perform a complete and profound analysis of all real and potential threats and, on this basis, to choose and develop a complete solution. The object of study are the e-commerce systems in the Bulgarian business organizations and the subject of study are the policies, strategies, approaches, methods, techniques and technologies to achieve a high level of security of these systems. The main goal of this study is to prove the thesis statement that effective protection in e-commerce is multi-layered and the new technologies, policies and procedures, laws and industry standards have to be taken into account. The tasks to achieve the goal include: presenting the results of a survey of the current state of e-commerce systems security in the Bulgarian business organizations; defining the problems of information security in e-commerce systems; and presenting a strategy and technology to counter these threats.

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  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES AND INEQUALITIES BETWÅÅN ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS IN BULGARIA

  The purpose of this paper is to theoretically justify and empirically estimate the regularities in the demographic, social and economic situation of the regions in Bulgaria and to disclose the interregional and intraregional disparities and inequalities based on a statistical analysis of the structure, dynamics and their factor determination. To ... The purpose of this paper is to theoretically justify and empirically estimate the regularities in the demographic, social and economic situation of the regions in Bulgaria and to disclose the interregional and intraregional disparities and inequalities based on a statistical analysis of the structure, dynamics and their factor determination. To realize the goal several basic tasks are performed, the most important of which are: describing interregional inequalities and disparities by means of the appropriate statistical tools; clarifying and analyzing intra- and interregional inequalities and disparities; examining the regularities in the demographic, social and economic development of the regions through the application of statistical methods for the time series analysis; and estimating the degree of convergence between the regions in Bulgaria, taking into account the impact of the economic crisis through a comparative analysis of the identified trends and patterns. The thesis statement advocated by the authors and confirmed by the results obtained in the study is that the economic crisis increases the degree of inequality between the regions in Bulgaria and intensifies the demographic, social and economic disparities of the population in terms of regions.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.