"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS AND ITS RISK ASPECTS

  The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial ... The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial business organizations; to systematize and analyze empirical data on its risk aspects and propose specific countermeasures. The thesis statement is that early identification and diagnosis of the risks of the market behaviour of the economic entities in industry, and the development of a policy for combating and limiting the negative consequences of their manifestation, are essential for achieving the company goals. As a result, the following were studied: the behaviour that the industrial business organizations demonstrate in the market, and the risks that accompany this type of company activities. Based on data from the empirical study it was found out that business organizations as a whole manage to demonstrate relatively adequate market behaviour. However, the adverse indications of the market environment and the many firm-wide difficulties raise a number of risks. In this context, ideas and recommendations are formulated for better (early) identification and diagnosis of the risks studied and for limiting and reducing the adverse effects of their occurrence.

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  THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATION OF GREEN JOBS IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR IN BULGARIA

  The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and ... The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and concepts for the development of a green economy and green jobs in the EU and U.S.; to define the term „green jobs”; to examine the prerequisites and barriers to green job creation in Bulgaria, and to study the potential for creation of green jobs in the private and public sectors. The main thesis in the study is that the concept of green economy is applicable in the private and public sectors in Bulgaria. Its implementation will catalyze the process of increasing the competitiveness of the areas that generate green jobs, reduce inter-regional disparities and accelerate the integration of the Bulgarian economy in the European structures. The study emphasizes the main results, namely: the best practices for implementation of green initiatives for sustainable local development and creation of green jobs are outlined, an attempt to quantify the attitudes about the creation of green jobs in the public and private sectors in Bulgaria is made, recommendations for improving the network interaction of stakeholders in the green economy issues are formulated.