"Scientific research" Almanac

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  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES AND INEQUALITIES BETWÅÅN ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS IN BULGARIA

  The purpose of this paper is to theoretically justify and empirically estimate the regularities in the demographic, social and economic situation of the regions in Bulgaria and to disclose the interregional and intraregional disparities and inequalities based on a statistical analysis of the structure, dynamics and their factor determination. To ... The purpose of this paper is to theoretically justify and empirically estimate the regularities in the demographic, social and economic situation of the regions in Bulgaria and to disclose the interregional and intraregional disparities and inequalities based on a statistical analysis of the structure, dynamics and their factor determination. To realize the goal several basic tasks are performed, the most important of which are: describing interregional inequalities and disparities by means of the appropriate statistical tools; clarifying and analyzing intra- and interregional inequalities and disparities; examining the regularities in the demographic, social and economic development of the regions through the application of statistical methods for the time series analysis; and estimating the degree of convergence between the regions in Bulgaria, taking into account the impact of the economic crisis through a comparative analysis of the identified trends and patterns. The thesis statement advocated by the authors and confirmed by the results obtained in the study is that the economic crisis increases the degree of inequality between the regions in Bulgaria and intensifies the demographic, social and economic disparities of the population in terms of regions.

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  AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODELS IN TEACHING STUDENTS OF ECONOMICS

  The issue of the use of agricultural simulation models in teaching economics students is topical in terms of the need to reflect the current trends in the development of education and training. The different models of the economic policy implemented are discussed in the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. This paper ... The issue of the use of agricultural simulation models in teaching economics students is topical in terms of the need to reflect the current trends in the development of education and training. The different models of the economic policy implemented are discussed in the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. This paper aims to study and reveal the potential opportunities for economic simulations that can be implemented in teaching economics students. In order to achieve this aim the following tasks have to be performed: studying the theory to clarify the specifics and the concepts used in the simulation economic models; assessing the state of agriculture and the possibilities for implementing potential economic policy simulation models; studying the potential for using the simulation models in teaching economics students; identifying the problems (factors) that affect the sphere of simulations; an European policy regarding the economic models for implementing the Common Agricultural Policy in agriculture; making conclusions and suggestions for agricultural simulation models in teaching students of economics.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.