"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  IMPROVING THE ‘PERLA’ RATING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE MONITORING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN BULGARIA

  The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an ... The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an independent and open rating system for assessing the banking sector helps to increase the discipline, competitiveness and stability of the banking sector. This study aims to assess the feasibility of the PERLA system for assessing the banking sector, developed in 2004 by a team at the department of Finance and Credit, and to find ways for improving it and enhancing the degree of its recognition. This is achieved through analyzing the theoretical foundations of the banking analysis and through building rating systems, and evaluation of its applicability under the Bulgarian conditions by improving the PERLA rating system. In the conclusion the author offers an advanced methodology for assessing the state of the Bulgarian banks (ALER(ts)).

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  STATUS OF THE INTERNAL CONTROL IN MUNICIPALITIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA

  The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a ... The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a lawful, transparent, efficient, effective and economical way. The aim of this study was to review the status of the existing FMCS by analyzing the empirical data from an independent external evaluation of these systems conducted by the National Audit Office of the Republic of Bulgaria. The authors argue that an assessment of the status of FMCS is indicative for the degree of their implementation and efficiency in public sector organizations and characteristic of the way first-tier budget disbursing entities control the spending of public resources. The results of the study show that the existing FMCS are not yet fully efficient and have not achieved the desired effect of their operation and certain components of these systems have to be upgraded.