"Scientific research" Almanac

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  MACROECONOMIC STATE OF BULGARIA AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BULGARIAN ECONOMY

  Bulgaria has managed to reduce the deficit as required according to the excessive deficit procedure and is carrying out a substantial reform aimed at raising the statutory retirement age for both men and women. Despite the progress made by the Government in fulfilling its reform programme, the main challenges facing the country’s policy have ... Bulgaria has managed to reduce the deficit as required according to the excessive deficit procedure and is carrying out a substantial reform aimed at raising the statutory retirement age for both men and women. Despite the progress made by the Government in fulfilling its reform programme, the main challenges facing the country’s policy have remained largely unchanged. Due to the constant increase in unemployment there should be more active reorientation of the active employment policy in order to improve employability. The low educational achievement shows that the provision of quality education faces significant structural barriers. Sustainability and adequacy of the pension system are still not fully guaranteed. The quality of public expenditure, the tax system efficiency and the business environment are suboptimal. Bulgaria is largely dependent on imported energy and its energy market is not fully operational.

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  RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS FOR INVESTMENT SELECTION – THEORY AND PRACTICE

  The paper reviews risk assessment for selection of investments in terms of em-pirical derivation and estimation of beta coefficients on the capital market in Bulgaria. It aims to develop some theoretical aspects regarding risk assessment for investment se-lection as well as to provide empirical derivation and trend analysis of the beta ... The paper reviews risk assessment for selection of investments in terms of em-pirical derivation and estimation of beta coefficients on the capital market in Bulgaria. It aims to develop some theoretical aspects regarding risk assessment for investment se-lection as well as to provide empirical derivation and trend analysis of the beta coeffi-cient values of leading Bulgarian public companies included in the SOFIX index. The paper is structured in four main parts according to its subject matter, goal and objec-tives. The first part reviews the current objectives and the theoretical grounds of in-vestment management. The second part focuses on the possibilities to include risk into the investment analysis. The third part analyzes the methodological framework for in-vestment selection. The fourth part presents an empirical study of the beta coefficients of the SOFIX companies for the period 2007-2012, identifies trends and proposes cor-porate grouping according to their capacity to restore market capitalization to the pre-crisis levels. The results show that two of the leading Bulgarian companies (i.e. 13.3% of the total number of companies in the index) have betas exceeding 1.25 (based on monthly data for the period Sept. 2007 - Sept. 2012), seven companies (46.7% of the index) have beta coefficients between 0.75 and 1.25 and six companies (40% of the index) have conservative betas of less than 0.75.

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  RESEARCHING VARIATIONS IN THE MARKET TREND BY USING INDICATORS FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  Technical analysis is one of the two approaches used for investment analysis of financial markets. It comprises diverse graphical and quantitative tools, which are applied in researching the price deviation of financial instruments. This research paper focuses on the indicators that are applied to forecast short-term price variations of financial ... Technical analysis is one of the two approaches used for investment analysis of financial markets. It comprises diverse graphical and quantitative tools, which are applied in researching the price deviation of financial instruments. This research paper focuses on the indicators that are applied to forecast short-term price variations of financial instruments.