"Scientific research" Almanac

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  RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS FOR INVESTMENT SELECTION – THEORY AND PRACTICE

  The paper reviews risk assessment for selection of investments in terms of em-pirical derivation and estimation of beta coefficients on the capital market in Bulgaria. It aims to develop some theoretical aspects regarding risk assessment for investment se-lection as well as to provide empirical derivation and trend analysis of the beta ... The paper reviews risk assessment for selection of investments in terms of em-pirical derivation and estimation of beta coefficients on the capital market in Bulgaria. It aims to develop some theoretical aspects regarding risk assessment for investment se-lection as well as to provide empirical derivation and trend analysis of the beta coeffi-cient values of leading Bulgarian public companies included in the SOFIX index. The paper is structured in four main parts according to its subject matter, goal and objec-tives. The first part reviews the current objectives and the theoretical grounds of in-vestment management. The second part focuses on the possibilities to include risk into the investment analysis. The third part analyzes the methodological framework for in-vestment selection. The fourth part presents an empirical study of the beta coefficients of the SOFIX companies for the period 2007-2012, identifies trends and proposes cor-porate grouping according to their capacity to restore market capitalization to the pre-crisis levels. The results show that two of the leading Bulgarian companies (i.e. 13.3% of the total number of companies in the index) have betas exceeding 1.25 (based on monthly data for the period Sept. 2007 - Sept. 2012), seven companies (46.7% of the index) have beta coefficients between 0.75 and 1.25 and six companies (40% of the index) have conservative betas of less than 0.75.

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  SIGNAL PARAMETERS OF SHADOW ECONOMY IN BULGARIA

  The global financial and economic crisis at the beginning of this century resulted in certain cataclysms with destructive effects on the government's financial policy. In-creasing government budget deficits, strikingly inadequate social status and deteriora-tion of the basic macroeconomic indicators measuring the „pulse” of the national and world ... The global financial and economic crisis at the beginning of this century resulted in certain cataclysms with destructive effects on the government's financial policy. In-creasing government budget deficits, strikingly inadequate social status and deteriora-tion of the basic macroeconomic indicators measuring the „pulse” of the national and world economy once again brought forward the issue of the scale of shadow economy. The presence of shadow economy is an indicator for the lack of trust in govern-ment's financial policy and the inefficiency of the national economic policy. At the same time shadow economy practices affect negatively the economic growth, efficiency of labour, competitiveness and the economic and financial policy of the state. In this context, the main goal of the study is to analyze the extent of the shadow economy and the issues related thereto as well as to examine its actual manifestations in Bulgaria and propose measures to mitigate it.

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  INFLUENCE OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES ON THE CAPITAL MARKET OF MAJOR EUROPEAN EXCHANGES

  There are still opinions in professional circles about the danger of financial derivatives and their blame for the current crisis. At the same time there are isolated studies regarding the specific effects of derivatives and they have a narrow focus – a separate tool, limited market and time. The current study looks for arguments about the actual ... There are still opinions in professional circles about the danger of financial derivatives and their blame for the current crisis. At the same time there are isolated studies regarding the specific effects of derivatives and they have a narrow focus – a separate tool, limited market and time. The current study looks for arguments about the actual influence of financial derivatives on the capital market in terms of studying the biggest West European exchanges with options and futures based on their instruments. An analysis is made of the most fundamental market indicators: exchange turnovers – in a premium value and number of contracts, open positions, movement of indexes, volatility, etc. The results of the correlative, comparative and traditional investment analyses lead to the fundamental findings: derivative trading improves market liquidity of the basic capital instruments and aids their risky management, the activity of derivative exchanges is more stable in years of crisis than that of the stock exchanges, which indicates a better risk-return correlation; an analogous analysis of the Russian markets for the same period corroborates some findings and shows some interesting differences in investment behaviour. In terms of methodology the parallel analysis between main indicators such as: exchange volumes, option rate and open positions enable the indication of fundamental changes in investment behaviour and of occurring financial and economic cataclysms.