"Scientific research" Almanac

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  MODELING PROBABILISTIC CHOICES WHEN BUYING

  This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for ... This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for predictive analytics of demand. The aim of the study is to develop a transpar-ent and traceable analytical methodology for analyzing empirical data from stated preferences, providing opportunities for evaluating, analyzing and predicting consumer choice. To achieve this goal, a brief synopsis of the discrete choice theory was made, as well as a review of methods for evaluating and analyzing traditional econometric mod-els with discrete dependent variables. Particular attention is drawn to the problems in specifying adequate binary and multinomial regression models, which are the core of analytical tools, and whose evaluation and verification is feasible with the help of open source software. Systematizing achievements in the field, recommendations are given for using predictive models for solving marketing problems. Methods for predictive analytics of consumer choice are proposed, including output of aggregated forecast estimates, building of market simulators for predictive modeling of market share, as-sessment of willingness-to-pay and price elasticity at the level of product alternatives.

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  OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPTIMIZING THE REGIME OF PAYMENTS FROM THE STATUTORY PENSION INSURANCE FOR DISABILITY IN BULGARIA

  An attempt has been made to argue the thesis that in the conditions of an unfolding system of social payments and coordinated institutional interaction within the framework of social protection, there is a need to rethink the social philosophy of disability benefits provided by the statutory pension insurance. The study of opportunities for ... An attempt has been made to argue the thesis that in the conditions of an unfolding system of social payments and coordinated institutional interaction within the framework of social protection, there is a need to rethink the social philosophy of disability benefits provided by the statutory pension insurance. The study of opportunities for development of the organizational framework of public pensions for labour activity in case of disability, in the context of the systemic nature of social payments in Bulgaria, is also the main aim of the research, in the connection with which the following specific tasks are set: study of the theoretical and methodological aspects of social security and social protection systems in modern society; study of the practical and applied aspects of social security and social protection systems in modern society; study of the specifics of disability protection in the context of risk differentiation of social protection systems; study of the national identity and the social insurance profile of the disability protection in Bulgaria and assessment of the need and opportunities for development of the organizational framework of payments from the statutory pension insurance for disability in Bulgaria. The results of the research enable to outline guidelines for optimizing the organizational framework of payments from the statutory pension insurance for disability in Bulgaria with the potential to increase the level of pensions within the available resources.

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  FISCAL POSITION OF MUNICIPALITIES IN TERMS OF PUBLIC SECTOR DECENTRALIZATION - CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

  This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of ... This scientific paper focuses on the issues of local finances and the permanent seeking of mechanisms for expanding the authorities of local governments, exploring the approach of transferring fiscal revenues to local budgets. The study aims to examine the state of local finances and decentralization in the public sector in Bulgaria, incl. of individual units of local government, and to test the impact of the proposed reform on the transfer of tax revenues on the fiscal position of municipalities in the context of ongoing processes of decentralization in the public sector. The author focuses on the thesis that the implementation of tax reform in the direction of transferring a certain part of the personal income tax to each local government unit will result in increasing its fiscal position, therefore, to increase opportunities a significant part of existing problems to be solved in a timely manner „on the spot“, until a higher degree of fiscal decentralization is achieved and its indicators are brought closer to the European average. As a result, specific correlations regarding the state of the budget indicators and financial independence for each of the 265 municipalities in Bulgaria have been identified and specific measures to achieve better results in the future are proposed. It is also analysed the effect of applying the hypothesis for transferring twenty per cent of the budget revenues from the personal income tax to the subsector „Local self-government“ and on that basis some recommendations have been suggested.