"Scientific research" Almanac

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  STATISTICAL DIMENSIONS OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND INEQUALITIES BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH BULGARIA

  Nowadays, the implemented regional policy is invariably related to adopting a certain concept and setting specific goals to limit the economic, social and demographic differences in the country. The present paper is a theoretical and applied study. The theoretical problems are related to the demographic, social and economic processes as objects of ... Nowadays, the implemented regional policy is invariably related to adopting a certain concept and setting specific goals to limit the economic, social and demographic differences in the country. The present paper is a theoretical and applied study. The theoretical problems are related to the demographic, social and economic processes as objects of statistical study of the NUTS 2 regions of North and South Bulgaria for the period 2004-2018. The applied aspect of the study is a thorough analysis of the economic, social and demographic situation of North and South Bulgaria. The purpose of this study is to theoretically justify and empirically estimate the regularities in the demographic, social and economic situation of North and South Bulgaria and to identify the regional differences and inequalities based on a statistical analysis of the dynamics, structure and their factor determination. To achieve this goal, the following main tasks are performed: characterizing the nature and theoretical concepts of inequality; presenting the methodology of the statistical survey of the regional differences between North and South Bulgaria; identifying the regularities in the demographic, social and economic development of North and South Bulgaria; classifying the areas according to their geographical location using discriminant analysis. The research thesis advocated by the authors and confirmed by the results is that improving the functional and spatial connectivity between the regions in North and South Bulgaria will lead to reducing the economic, social and demographic differences and inequalities between them.

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  MODELING PROBABILISTIC CHOICES WHEN BUYING

  This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for ... This study systematizes the theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling of consumer behavior in the choice process in the context of random utility theory. The main attention is paid to some aspects of econometric estimation of discrete choice models. The main thesis is that based on the theory of random utility, you can create tools for predictive analytics of demand. The aim of the study is to develop a transpar-ent and traceable analytical methodology for analyzing empirical data from stated preferences, providing opportunities for evaluating, analyzing and predicting consumer choice. To achieve this goal, a brief synopsis of the discrete choice theory was made, as well as a review of methods for evaluating and analyzing traditional econometric mod-els with discrete dependent variables. Particular attention is drawn to the problems in specifying adequate binary and multinomial regression models, which are the core of analytical tools, and whose evaluation and verification is feasible with the help of open source software. Systematizing achievements in the field, recommendations are given for using predictive models for solving marketing problems. Methods for predictive analytics of consumer choice are proposed, including output of aggregated forecast estimates, building of market simulators for predictive modeling of market share, as-sessment of willingness-to-pay and price elasticity at the level of product alternatives.

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  STRATEGIC PLANNING OF SOCIAL SERVICES - CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS

  The purpose of this study is to evaluate the quality of regional strategies for the development of social services and to outline the main characteristics of their condition and prospects for development. The objects of study are the regional strategies for the development of social services in Bulgaria in the period 2016-2020. The subject of the ... The purpose of this study is to evaluate the quality of regional strategies for the development of social services and to outline the main characteristics of their condition and prospects for development. The objects of study are the regional strategies for the development of social services in Bulgaria in the period 2016-2020. The subject of the study is the quality of the¬se strategies, in order to provide an opportunity for proactive policy in the social sector. Closely related to the defined goal are the research tasks, which are derived from the main research thesis, namely that the approach applied so far for strategic planning of social policies at the district level is characterized by significant weaknesses. They derive both from the regulatory and strategic framework and from the institutional organization and powers in terms of its formulation, implementation, monitoring, reporting, communication and updating. The applied research methods are standard for scientific research and include: content and GAP analysis of documents, benchmarking, critical analysis, method of analysis and synthesis, multicriteria evaluation by defined checklist, analysis of structures and temporal groupings. Induction and deduction have been used in formulating perspectives for the process of formulating social policies. Among the most important conclusions is the need to overcome the existing weaknesses in terms of the organization and institutionalization of the processes of providing social services and the creation of a working mechanism for their quality planning in dynamics.