"Scientific research" Almanac

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  MONITORING AND ANALYSIS OF DEBT AND THE DEBT CRISIS (methodological aspects)

  The object of the current study is the public debt, and the subject – the tools for measurement (monitoring), evaluation and analysis of debt under the conditions of a growing global debt crisis. The analysis focuses on two working hypotheses: First. Determining the situation in the external sector of an economy is a function of the cumulative ... The object of the current study is the public debt, and the subject – the tools for measurement (monitoring), evaluation and analysis of debt under the conditions of a growing global debt crisis. The analysis focuses on two working hypotheses: First. Determining the situation in the external sector of an economy is a function of the cumulative expression of the individual analytical balances reported as foreign exchange balances, on the one hand, and the status and trends in its external debt. Second. The debt crisis in the 21st century from a phenomenon typical of developing countries is becoming a global problem, whose solution requires the application of a variety of measures and decisions of national and international nature. The aim of the study is to develop ideas for methodologically sound assessment on an international basis of the current state of public debts as a basis for conducting national and internationally agreed policies for its management.

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  ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE AMOUNT AND MATURITY PROFILE OF BANK CONSUMER LOANS IN BULGARIA

  Over the last two decades there has been a substantial increase in theoretical and practical-applied research into the impact of key determinants on the consumer loans that banks offer. Their profitability and credit risk level depend on the optimum structuring of credit transactions. Of course this statement should not contradict the compliance ... Over the last two decades there has been a substantial increase in theoretical and practical-applied research into the impact of key determinants on the consumer loans that banks offer. Their profitability and credit risk level depend on the optimum structuring of credit transactions. Of course this statement should not contradict the compliance with the following two principles: 1) The amount and the term of the bank loan must fully comply with the actual need for funding, and 2) The value of the debt must be ‘secured’ with a sufficient level of creditworthiness. In this paper, the authors commit themselves to a thorough examination and assessment of key factors influencing the maturity structure and the amount of bank consumer loans in Bulgaria. Through a survey they aim to analyze and assess the priority of key determinants that affect the credit policy on the basis of individual opinions of bank experts directly involved in granting consumer loans.

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  CUSTOMER RESPONSE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING UPLIFT MODELLING

  Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not ... Traditional customer response models are based on the understanding that marketing campaign effectiveness could be measured by predicting response probabilities of each customer. Such approach seems to be very reasonable and in most cases it gives better results than random targeting. A fundamental problem of response modelling is that it does not separate the impact of a campaign from other stimuli and spontaneous responses because response models predict the wrong thing. They model and predict response probabilities, not the change in those probabilities as a result of the given marketing intervention. Following the understanding that traditional response models do not give optimal marketing decisions, the goal of this study is to define, estimate and apply on a real data base uplift model for predicting the change in customer behaviour resulting from marketing action. The specific tasks relate to studying the opportunities of a relatively new and less familiar methodology for identifying hesitant and persuadable customers. The study illustrates the application of the direct approach for uplift modeling and demonstrates its significant advantages over targeting based on uplift models over traditional response models.