"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATION OF GREEN JOBS IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR IN BULGARIA

  The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and ... The main objective of the study is to reveal the potential for change and reorientation of the production model in Bulgaria toward a more sustainable economy generating new green jobs and territorial development, which is to integrate the environmental, economic and social stability. The main tasks are: to systematically analyze the approaches and concepts for the development of a green economy and green jobs in the EU and U.S.; to define the term „green jobs”; to examine the prerequisites and barriers to green job creation in Bulgaria, and to study the potential for creation of green jobs in the private and public sectors. The main thesis in the study is that the concept of green economy is applicable in the private and public sectors in Bulgaria. Its implementation will catalyze the process of increasing the competitiveness of the areas that generate green jobs, reduce inter-regional disparities and accelerate the integration of the Bulgarian economy in the European structures. The study emphasizes the main results, namely: the best practices for implementation of green initiatives for sustainable local development and creation of green jobs are outlined, an attempt to quantify the attitudes about the creation of green jobs in the public and private sectors in Bulgaria is made, recommendations for improving the network interaction of stakeholders in the green economy issues are formulated.

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  STUDY OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN THE DISTRICTS OF PLEVEN AND VELIKO TARNOVO IN 2007–2013

  The object of the study is the regional development of the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo, and its subject is the practice of the economic agents located within the target area to develop and manage projects in order to attract additional external funding, which would allow them to realize their goals, plans, programmes and strategies. The ... The object of the study is the regional development of the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo, and its subject is the practice of the economic agents located within the target area to develop and manage projects in order to attract additional external funding, which would allow them to realize their goals, plans, programmes and strategies. The purpose of this study is to describe and evaluate the practice of economic agents from the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo to develop and manage projects, and to identify the main problems that beneficiaries faced during the first planning period of Bulgaria’s membership in the EU. The main thesis statement is that the economic agents from both districts have information and experience in project development and management, but not all of them are active enough. Considering the subject, object, purpose, and thesis statement, the study is structured in two main parts. The first part presents some of the main options for accession of the EU funds and reviews the achievements of the economic agents. The second part focuses on the significant problems revealed regarding the organization and publicity for handling funds, and offers suggestions for the improvement of various aspects of project management.