"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  LEGAL, ACCOUNTING AND CONTROL ASPECTS OF PUBLIC PROCUREMENT IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

  Public procurements are essential for the allocation of public finances. Budget organizations make their investment expenditures through them. The importance of public procurements for the future of the institutions which function based on their budget credits determines the interest in studying that area. It requires a comprehensive study in ... Public procurements are essential for the allocation of public finances. Budget organizations make their investment expenditures through them. The importance of public procurements for the future of the institutions which function based on their budget credits determines the interest in studying that area. It requires a comprehensive study in three main trends – legal framework, accounting processes and control on the public procurements. The aim of the study is to establish the legal, accounting and control aspects of the public procurement in the public sector. The main tasks are: examining their legal framework; studying the public sector procurement reporting; studying the preliminary control and examining the external control on public procurements. The thesis statement that is defended is that the lawful implementation of public procurements has a significant impact on the publicity and transparency of funds spent from the state budget and the European Union. As a result, the study reached the following conclusions: difficult process of administration, artificial barriers for the candidates, lack of disclosed corruption cases, no effective methods for internal and external control of the procurement process. Changes to the legal framework are proposed, relating to the introduction of electronic procedures, appointment of government experts, new rules for selection of candidates.

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  STUDY OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN THE DISTRICTS OF PLEVEN AND VELIKO TARNOVO IN 2007–2013

  The object of the study is the regional development of the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo, and its subject is the practice of the economic agents located within the target area to develop and manage projects in order to attract additional external funding, which would allow them to realize their goals, plans, programmes and strategies. The ... The object of the study is the regional development of the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo, and its subject is the practice of the economic agents located within the target area to develop and manage projects in order to attract additional external funding, which would allow them to realize their goals, plans, programmes and strategies. The purpose of this study is to describe and evaluate the practice of economic agents from the districts of Pleven and Veliko Tarnovo to develop and manage projects, and to identify the main problems that beneficiaries faced during the first planning period of Bulgaria’s membership in the EU. The main thesis statement is that the economic agents from both districts have information and experience in project development and management, but not all of them are active enough. Considering the subject, object, purpose, and thesis statement, the study is structured in two main parts. The first part presents some of the main options for accession of the EU funds and reviews the achievements of the economic agents. The second part focuses on the significant problems revealed regarding the organization and publicity for handling funds, and offers suggestions for the improvement of various aspects of project management.