"Scientific research" Almanac

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  IMPROVING THE ‘PERLA’ RATING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE MONITORING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN BULGARIA

  The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an ... The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an independent and open rating system for assessing the banking sector helps to increase the discipline, competitiveness and stability of the banking sector. This study aims to assess the feasibility of the PERLA system for assessing the banking sector, developed in 2004 by a team at the department of Finance and Credit, and to find ways for improving it and enhancing the degree of its recognition. This is achieved through analyzing the theoretical foundations of the banking analysis and through building rating systems, and evaluation of its applicability under the Bulgarian conditions by improving the PERLA rating system. In the conclusion the author offers an advanced methodology for assessing the state of the Bulgarian banks (ALER(ts)).

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  ASSESSING MARKETING EFFECTIVENESS – PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

  The issues related to marketing effectiveness and linking marketing to a firm’s financial results have been very popular in the economic literature in the past two decades. In this study we try to systemize the accumulated knowledge in this area. We define some methodological problems concerning marketing effectiveness assessment. Based on the ... The issues related to marketing effectiveness and linking marketing to a firm’s financial results have been very popular in the economic literature in the past two decades. In this study we try to systemize the accumulated knowledge in this area. We define some methodological problems concerning marketing effectiveness assessment. Based on the data accumulated we define the category of marketing effectiveness and outline its manifestations. We argue that marketing effectiveness assessment has to be done in different ways according to the assessment object – a separate marketing campaign or a marketing activity as a whole. We propose to use ‘Return on Marketing Investments’ (MROI) for assessing a single marketing campaign, and the change in the marketing assets – for assessing the marketing effectiveness as a whole (marketing strategy). General models for the two types of assessment are proposed.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.