"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE AGRIBUSINESS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BULGARIA

  The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing ... The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing sustainable business in the rural regions of Bulgaria. Three sub goals further expand the main objective of the study, namely: to analyze the problems of sustainable use of natural resources; to outline the main trends in the preservation of the environment and biodiversity; and to specify the models and forms of sustainable business development in the country. The specific tasks that the study completes are related to revealing the economic and social advantages of sustainable development, identifying the problems of sustainable use of natural resources in Bulgaria and coordinating the mutual efforts of business agents in the rural regions for achieving sustainable development. The results of the research are as follows: outlining approaches to sustainable use of natural resources within their capacity as a prerequisite of any long-term development by coordinating the political, economic and social systems; suggesting models for sustainable resource use on the basis of organic farming; highlighting the advantages of sustainable agriculture as an opportunity for reducing unemployment, migration processes and local economy development in the endangered regions of Bulgaria.

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  IMPROVING THE ‘PERLA’ RATING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE MONITORING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN BULGARIA

  The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an ... The global banking crisis of 2007 raised a number of issues and challenges in the banking sector. One aspect of the debates provoked was connected with the issue of the rating assessments and the methods for objectively measuring the condition of the banks and the sector as a whole. This problem is also reflected in the thesis statement that an independent and open rating system for assessing the banking sector helps to increase the discipline, competitiveness and stability of the banking sector. This study aims to assess the feasibility of the PERLA system for assessing the banking sector, developed in 2004 by a team at the department of Finance and Credit, and to find ways for improving it and enhancing the degree of its recognition. This is achieved through analyzing the theoretical foundations of the banking analysis and through building rating systems, and evaluation of its applicability under the Bulgarian conditions by improving the PERLA rating system. In the conclusion the author offers an advanced methodology for assessing the state of the Bulgarian banks (ALER(ts)).