"Scientific research" Almanac

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  STATUS OF THE INTERNAL CONTROL IN MUNICIPALITIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA

  The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a ... The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a lawful, transparent, efficient, effective and economical way. The aim of this study was to review the status of the existing FMCS by analyzing the empirical data from an independent external evaluation of these systems conducted by the National Audit Office of the Republic of Bulgaria. The authors argue that an assessment of the status of FMCS is indicative for the degree of their implementation and efficiency in public sector organizations and characteristic of the way first-tier budget disbursing entities control the spending of public resources. The results of the study show that the existing FMCS are not yet fully efficient and have not achieved the desired effect of their operation and certain components of these systems have to be upgraded.

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  MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS AND ITS RISK ASPECTS

  The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial ... The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial business organizations; to systematize and analyze empirical data on its risk aspects and propose specific countermeasures. The thesis statement is that early identification and diagnosis of the risks of the market behaviour of the economic entities in industry, and the development of a policy for combating and limiting the negative consequences of their manifestation, are essential for achieving the company goals. As a result, the following were studied: the behaviour that the industrial business organizations demonstrate in the market, and the risks that accompany this type of company activities. Based on data from the empirical study it was found out that business organizations as a whole manage to demonstrate relatively adequate market behaviour. However, the adverse indications of the market environment and the many firm-wide difficulties raise a number of risks. In this context, ideas and recommendations are formulated for better (early) identification and diagnosis of the risks studied and for limiting and reducing the adverse effects of their occurrence.

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.