"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS AND ITS RISK ASPECTS

  The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial ... The aim of this study is to examine the market behaviour of industrial business organizations and its risk aspects and formulate ideas to successfully counteract the risks and adverse consequences of their occurrence. In this regard, the main tasks are: to examine and summarize the theoretical aspects of market behaviour of modern industrial business organizations; to systematize and analyze empirical data on its risk aspects and propose specific countermeasures. The thesis statement is that early identification and diagnosis of the risks of the market behaviour of the economic entities in industry, and the development of a policy for combating and limiting the negative consequences of their manifestation, are essential for achieving the company goals. As a result, the following were studied: the behaviour that the industrial business organizations demonstrate in the market, and the risks that accompany this type of company activities. Based on data from the empirical study it was found out that business organizations as a whole manage to demonstrate relatively adequate market behaviour. However, the adverse indications of the market environment and the many firm-wide difficulties raise a number of risks. In this context, ideas and recommendations are formulated for better (early) identification and diagnosis of the risks studied and for limiting and reducing the adverse effects of their occurrence.

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  OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED ACCOUNTING INFORMATION SYSTEM OF ENTERPRISES

  The choice of the field of this study was suggested by the fact that the application of information technologies in accounting is an interesting topic for theoretical research and it is up-to-date and useful in practice. The objective of the study is to explore the opportunities for developing an integrated accounting information system (IAIS) in ... The choice of the field of this study was suggested by the fact that the application of information technologies in accounting is an interesting topic for theoretical research and it is up-to-date and useful in practice. The objective of the study is to explore the opportunities for developing an integrated accounting information system (IAIS) in the practice of enterprises. To achieve the objective the following tasks have to be performed: to explore the characteristics and elements of IAIS; to justify the need for its creation; to analyze the possibilities and limitations of its implementation; to identify the prerequisites for its active use. The thesis statement is that the development, deployment and use of IAIS have the potential to be a major management information system in the practice of enterprises that will allow faster generating and using the necessary information. The results of the study we conducted suggest several major conclusions how to improve accounting information systems in enterprises: 1) The accounting information system is the most important one in enterprises; 2) Integrated accounting information systems guarantee synthetic and analytical reporting on the performance of enterprises and preparing Annual Financial Statements in compliance with the statutory requirements in every country; 3) Integrated accounting information systems must be adopted as an instrument for current and subsequent analysis and budgeting of the performance of enterprises; 4) Integrated accounting information systems provide the basis for making various managerial decisions.