"Scientific research" Almanac

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  USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS SALES FORECASTING BASED ON TRANSACTIONAL DATA

  The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. ... The interest in modelling the structure of consumer preferences and consumer choice behaviour in order to predict future purchase decisions has a long and rich tradition in marketing. Finding a practical solution to this problem is becoming increasingly critical with the increased availability of customer transactional individual-level databases. The focus of this paper is on the application of specific class of probability models that are well-suited to meet the rising challenges a marketing manager faces. Our objective is to define, estimate and a priori validate a predictive probability model by aggregating the individual-level purchase history (i.e. purchase frequency and recency). We demonstrate the relatively high performance of NDB and BG/NDB models using transactional data of a cohort of new customers. This supports our thesis statement that probability models are very suitable for identifying and forecasting purchasing behaviour. The availability of precise individual-level predictions concerns any serious attempt to derive customer lifetime value on a systematic basis.

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  PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE AGRIBUSINESS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BULGARIA

  The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing ... The present study is based on the thesis statement that it is possible and necessary to develop successful business which takes care of preserving the environment in Bulgaria. With reference to this the objective of the present research is to study the problems of sustainable development in the country and in particular the prospects of doing sustainable business in the rural regions of Bulgaria. Three sub goals further expand the main objective of the study, namely: to analyze the problems of sustainable use of natural resources; to outline the main trends in the preservation of the environment and biodiversity; and to specify the models and forms of sustainable business development in the country. The specific tasks that the study completes are related to revealing the economic and social advantages of sustainable development, identifying the problems of sustainable use of natural resources in Bulgaria and coordinating the mutual efforts of business agents in the rural regions for achieving sustainable development. The results of the research are as follows: outlining approaches to sustainable use of natural resources within their capacity as a prerequisite of any long-term development by coordinating the political, economic and social systems; suggesting models for sustainable resource use on the basis of organic farming; highlighting the advantages of sustainable agriculture as an opportunity for reducing unemployment, migration processes and local economy development in the endangered regions of Bulgaria.

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  STATUS OF THE INTERNAL CONTROL IN MUNICIPALITIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA

  The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a ... The financial management and control systems (FMCS) of public sector organizations are a key element of their management in compliance with the provisions of the EU acquis communautaire and the legislation in force in our country. Their status is to a large extent indicative of the extent to which public resources and activities are managed in a lawful, transparent, efficient, effective and economical way. The aim of this study was to review the status of the existing FMCS by analyzing the empirical data from an independent external evaluation of these systems conducted by the National Audit Office of the Republic of Bulgaria. The authors argue that an assessment of the status of FMCS is indicative for the degree of their implementation and efficiency in public sector organizations and characteristic of the way first-tier budget disbursing entities control the spending of public resources. The results of the study show that the existing FMCS are not yet fully efficient and have not achieved the desired effect of their operation and certain components of these systems have to be upgraded.